McDonald Dazzles in Pirates Debut

Before I write this.  I will keep trying to write fresh stuff, but I've been posting most of my Pirates work on both Bleacher Report and Sports Haze, where I make money for writing.  I will at least keep the blog going and if I can get some help, then Operation Shutdown can get back to being fresh and entertaining.  I've also been posting at Clemente at the Bat so check that out as well.

Now for today's topic.

How many times have we seen it. The Pirates trade away a veteran and get a highly thought of prospect or a young player with “potential” in a deal; only to watch these guys fall flat on their face and struggle. When the Pirates shipped closer Octavio Dotel to the Dodgers for right handed starter James McDonald, who I’ve always been very high on, and top outfield prospect Andrew Lambo, I felt that it was a steal for Pirates General manager Neil Huntington.


My next thought became “How soon is McDonald going to develop arm problems in Pittsburgh.”

McDonald was thrown right into the Pirates rotation and for a change, a Pirates acquisition delivered immediate results in a Pirates uniform. The 26-year old right hander dazzled in his Pirates debut, throwing six shutout innings, allowing only four hits and striking out eight. More importantly is that he threw strikes, walking only one, earning the victory in a 5-1 Pirates win over the Colorado Rockies.

McDonald has a very good arm. His fastball will hit 96mph and has better than above average breaking stuff. I don’t want to make too much out of just one start, but he looked great. The results were far better than what Pirates fans are accustomed to.

If ever a team needed a young pitcher to step up and be effective it’s the Pirates. Hopefully McDonald can continue upward and become a guy that can take the ball every fifth day and turn in a quality outing. There sure isn’t anyone else on the staff currently capable of doing that.


Now the Pirates also have the worst luck with young pitchers developing arm problems, a problem I point the finger at the Pirates organization. Hopefully they’ve smartened up over the years and protect the guy.

One start or not, it’s a positive sign on a team with not too many positives lately.

Bucs aquire Snyder- What's Doumit's future?

The Pirates had another busy trade deadline, but unlike years past, this year there were no salary dumps or accumulation of prospects. The Pirates made three trades today and all appear to be good baseball moves. The Pirates acquired catcher Chris Snyder and minor league shortstop Pedro Ciriaco from the Arizona Diamondbacks, in exchange for Ryan Church, Bobby Crosby and D.J. Carrasco.

They also sent closer Octavio Dotel to the Los Angeles Dodgers for right hander James McDonald and minor league outfielder Andrew Lambo and also sent Javier Lopez to the San Francisco Giants in exchange for right hander Joe Martinez and outfielder John Bowker. Give the Pirates some credit for being able to sign some veteran relievers in the off-season that they were able to turn into young arms.

The biggest move of the day though was acquiring Snyder. It also now leaves a big question on what to do with Ryan Doumit. Snyder has the reputation of being one of the games better defensive catchers, something the Pirates were desperately in need of. He should be able to help the pitching staff out as well, as Snyder is know for being able to handle a staff, something Doumit wasn't capable of. The Pirates did well with this move. While Snyder doesn't do much as an average hitter, his offensive numbers are comparable to Doumit's, who doesn't offer much of anything.

Snyder is hitting .231 on the year, while Doumit is only hitting .258. Snyder's hit ten homers and driven in 32 runs, while Doumit has hit eight homers and driven in 32. The improvement though is defensively. Snyder is known for being a glove man and has a good arm behind the dish, while Doumit is the worst catcher in the game today. Doumit won't be behind the plate very often (Thank God) anymore and the Pirates young pitchers will benefit from it.



What do you do now with Doumit though? It's a shame that his fragile self got hurt again right before the deadline or there is a good chance he would have got dealt. The immediate plan is to make him the everyday right fielder and that is just an awful idea. In six seasons as a pro, Doumit has done absolutely nothing to warrant regular playing time, yet the Pirates keep finding ways to get his "bat" into the lineup. What bat?

Doumit has had one decent year offensively as a pro, in 2008 when he hit .318. That same season, he also set career highs in homers (15) and RBI's (69). Still very below average numbers though. Yet, the Pirates continue to run him out there and bat him in the middle of the order often when his track record clearly shows he's not a talented offensive player. He's hit over .260 only one other time (.274 in 2007), reached double digits in homers only one other time (10 in 2009) and other than his 69 RBI season of 2008 has never driven in more than 40 runs in a season. Not to mention he is a huge liability no matter where you put him on the field defensively.

It's a shame the Pirates are thinking about putting him in right field. You have to feel bad for Lastings Milledge. First he has to platoon with Ryan Church, who was hitting .180 on the season and now he will lose at bats to Doumit. Once he started playing everyday again, all Milledge has done is hit. When guys are on base, Milledge drrives in runs, hitting over .380 with runners in scoring position, something Doumit would know nothing about.

It's a disgrace to keep giving Doumit at bats. Now that the Pirates have better talent, they should run their best eight guys out there on a nightly basis. There is nothing wrong with having Doumit as a bench player, getting a spot start every now and then, but he shouldn't be getting regular playing time.

Pittsburgh Pirates second half Preview

The Pirates first half record of 30-58 is another indication of an 18th straight losing season and another possible 100 loss season. The first half gave fans very few things to be happy about, but there were a few.

For one, the performance of the bullpen, which has been very good. The Evan Meek- Joel Hanrahan seventh and eighth inning combo has been very effective.

Another positive first half thing has been the promotion of youngsters: Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Jose Tabata and Brad Lincoln. That, coupled with many youngsters performing well throughout the minor leagues, give fans some real hope going forward.

The final positive thing of the first half has been Andrew McCutchen. He’s been around over a full calendar year now and keeps showing signs of being a legitimate stud.

So what should we look forward to in the second half of the season? While the record likely won’t get much better, there are several things that should keep fans intrested for the rest of the season.

For one, the youngsters should slowly start to get better. All four of the guys up right now should make the team worth keeping an eye on the rest of the way.

The trading deadline should also be worth keeping an eye on. While there won’t be a fire sale similar to years past; if the Pirates are smart, they will deal some of the current dead weight on the club. That includes: Ryan Doumit, Zach Duke and Ryan Church, among others.

They should also look into dealing some productive bullpen arms such as Brenden Donally, Octavio Dotel and DJ Carrasco. Stick to the plan and keep bringing in young players to the system.

With trades, you need new bodies to take their places, which means we could see even more young players promoted to the big club. Shortstop Argenis Diaz and left handed reliever Daniel Moskos are likely the first two on the radar.

As for the play on the field, it can’t get much worse fundamentally than the first half. The fundamentals have to start to improve all the way around, which could lead to a few more wins. Also, the starting pitching has to get better and the Pirates have to start to hit as a team.

One main area of focus has to be the play on the road, where the Bucs are a major league worst 11-38. They have to find ways to win on the road.

The plan to do this should be to continue to get younger at the big league level. The current mix of vets just flat out haven’t produced and their time should be up. Turn things over to a group of talented young players. While they will initially struggle at the major league level, let them grow together and learn to win together. It’s a risky plan, but it worked for the Rays. At this point, it’s worth trying to an extent, the current group won’t get much better until changes are made.

If anything, in the second half, the Pirates aren’t likely to improve their win total much, but are more likely to improve their chances at landing the number one overall pick, where they currently sit only one game ahead of the Baltimore Orioles.

Looking at the Pirates Trade Options

With yesterday's minor acquisition of reliever Sean Gallagher from the San Diego Padres, I got asked many times today, "Why would the Pirates acquire a reliever when their bullpen is so good?"

Quite simply, the answer is that the bullpen won't be as good for long because potentially as many as three Pirates relievers could be on the move before the July 31st trading deadline.  Gallagher then becomes a healthy arm that John Russell can use for the rest of the reason.

Here are the best candidates to be dealt by the deadline.

5. Ryan Church- Church signed a one-year, $1.5 mil deal in the off-season.  While he has underachieved big time as a Pirate, some contender will look to acquire an extra left handed bat off of the bench.

4. Ryan Doumit- Doumit should be priority one to deal, but the Pirates love him way too much.  He is in the second year of a three year, $11.5 mil deal that includes a club option for 2012.  The Pirates must realize that this guy can't not handle a major league pitching staff and send him packing.  He has done nothing in his six seasons as a Pirate that warrants him being a part of the future.

The time has likely passed to get a decent return on Doumit, but some American League team might be able to use him as a DH, so there is a chance he can be dealt.

3. Brendan Donnelly-  He will likely be in demand.  He signed a one year, $1.5 mil deal this past off-season, so money won't be an issue here. Several teams could use a reliable reliever that has pitched for contenders in the past.  The bad part about dealing guys such as Donnelly is that they typically don't fetch much in return.

2. Octavio Dotel- Dotel has had a solid season, but with all-star Evan Meek sitting as the closer in waiting, Dotel is a good bet to get dealt.  His contract isn't much of an issue.  Dotel signed a one year, $3.25 mil deal with a club option for next season at $4.5 mil that certainly won't be picked up by any team.  More than a handful of teams would love to acquire a power arm to use down the stretch run.

Other guys to keep an eye on include Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Andy Laroche. One of the pitchers, hopefully Duke will be dealt, but the guy most likely to be traded is.............

1. DJ Carrasco-  Carrasco has value to teams as he can eat innings and pitch in any role a contender will need.  He signed a minor league deal in the off-season, so another team won't be assuming salary.  However, while I feel Carrasco is a sure bet to go, it's another case where you shouldn't expect the Pirates to get much in return for him.

Looking back at the Matt Capps Situation

After the Washington Nationals just swept the Buccos with former Pirate Matt Capps getting saves in the first two games of the series; it's a perfect time to look back at the Matt Capps situation last off season.

Did Neil Huntington make the right move regarding Capps?  As much as I usually have NH's back on his moves, he dropped the ball regarding Capps.  Would this team be better with Capps as the closer? No. Should Capps be a member of this bullpen? Not at all.  The bullpen has done a fine job.  However, there is absolutely no way Capps should have been released.  They could have gotten something for him last season or even during the off season.  It's just a simple case of the Pirates over valuing their players as usual.

Let's take a look at both Capps and Octavio Dotel's season up to date.  Capps is 0-3 with a 3.38 era and 20 saves while Dotel is 0-2 with a much higher 5.40 era and 12 saves.  Naturally, Capps is doing a better job, Right?  Not really.

Capps got off to a tremendous April, saving 12 games, sporting a 0.68 era.  On the other hand, Dotel wasn't very good in the season's first month, notching only 3 saves with a 10.61era.  Since that time though, Dotel has been much better.  He has notched 9 saves with a 0.82 era in May and June, while Capps has been more Capps-like.  The former Pirate has 8 saves in the last month and a half,  but an era of 6.12.

Given the choice of the two. I'd still go with Dotel.  Most of the reason his numbers look bad is due to having to pitch in a bunch of Pirates April blow outs where he didn't pitch well.  On the other hand, much of Capps early success is due to being able to pitch in save situations on a regular basis.   Closers can't be run out every fifth day like a starter would and pitch effectively.  Good closers need to pitch three or four times a week.  Obviously that won't be the case in Pittsburgh.  Capps performance of late, along with the call up of rookie Drew Storen; already have Nats fans wondering how long the team will stick with Capps as it's closer.

NH should have been more aggressive when dealing with Capps.  He had value and should have been moved at the deadline last season.  This season, I expect only two or three deadline deals, with most of the Pirates young future already starting to arrive.  With the emergence of Evan Meek along with Joel Hanrahan, they should be able to handle the ninth inning just fine.

Dotel should have value to contending teams at the deadline. Let's hope NH doesn't drop the ball with him as he did with Matt Capps.

Looking at the Quality Start

Another quality start for a Pirates pitcher tonight. This time it was Jeff Karstens pitching well in a 2-0 win over the Cardinals.

No team has played by the theory of good pitching beats good hitting more than these Buccos.  I've been charting the outings all season and it breaks down like this.  Through 30 games, the Pirates have gotten 15 quality starts and 15 very bad starts.

I'm not that big on the quality start numbers, I prefer to go by the eye test.  I still look at the six inning pitched and three earned runs or less, but I prefer to go by "Did the starting pitcher give the team a chance to win today" theory.  Yes, I know, I'm an innovator.

Let's take a look.  When the Pirates receive a quality start, they are 13-2 as a team and their starters are sporting an impressive 2.55 era.  Paul Maholm has led the team with five of my quality starts, followed by Zach Duke with four and Brian Burres and Jeff Karstens with two a piece.

When the Pirates don't get a quality start, it's ugly.  They are 1-14 as a team and have an astronomical era of 12.24  Naturally, Charlie Morton leads the team with five non-quality starts, followed by Duke with three.

When this team gets good pitching, they are a fun team to watch.  If they get quality starts and can score just enough runs to win; then the power arms in the bullpen can really be effective.  I know it's a cliche, but all they need from their starters are six quality innings.  They currently have a effective late innings bullpen with Evan Meek in the seventh, Joel Hanrahan in the eighth and Octavio Dotel in the ninth.

It's been 30 games, so teams begin to show trends.  The trend of this Pirates team is the quality start.  They can hang around the .500 mark for a while if and only if the starting pitching continues to perform well.

Check back tomorrow and I will break down John Russell's tough decision that lays in front of him.  With Ross Ohlendorf coming back to the rotation on Monday, one of Karstens or Burres will be out of the rotation.  Both guys have pitched well and coming off their last outings. deserve to get the ball again.

Check out our post-game report, following tonight's win, featuring Randy Gore.  Click HERE

Until then.  Let's Go Bucs

Bucs win a series in Miller Park

Wow.  First time in four seasons a series win in Milwaukee. Back to back exciting games.  I will write a bigger post tomorrow but my thoughts on today are:

-Maholm- struggled in the first but overall rebounded to give them a solid outing.  If our starters can keep getting into the seventh the way Karstens and Maholm did, then this team has a chance to compete most nights.  A big IF though.

-Good to see Andy show a little pop.  He's swinging a real hot bat and should stay in the 2 hole all year.

-Cutch had a great game- 4 hits and 2 HR.  We will see more of this the rest of the year.

-Good work by the bullpen the last 2 nights, even though Lopez (yesterday) gave up the Fielder bomb and Dotel blew the save today.  Those things will happen.

-How does Aki not knock down the McGhee grounder in the 10th.  He was positioned perfectly.

- Another lousy strike zone by a home plate umpire against the Bucs.  it's getting to be a trend.  If Dotel gets the strike 3 call on Mcghee then the game is over.  Laroche got punched out on a much worse pitch.  It's been happening all season.  Pitchers haven't been getting calls and Pirates hitters are getting the same pitches called.

- Russell not bunting Crosby in the 14th?  Don't agree with that but they won the game.

-Not to defend Doumit, but right when his bat is coming around, JR gives him a day off?  I don't want to hear about a day game after a night game, because he always catches Doumit in those situations.

To hear our post game recap.  Today featuring Randy Gore, click HERE

The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly of Week 1

Well, it took seven games to get below .500, if you took the over, well then you likely are a winner.  I haven't gotten around to writing much this week because I have been deathly ill (Doctor was unable to determine if the cause of the sickness was due the the Pirates pitching lately, but maybe I need a second opinion).

So after a week, I still have a decent buzz about this team.  Like everyone else, its not nearly the buzz after a 2-0 start, but unlike everyone else, I didn't expect them to win the World Series afer two games.  Good news is the Reds come to town so maybe they can win two out of three at home (a little cheap shot at my friend Michael Hammons Big Red machine)

Well let's get into discussing.

THE GOOD
- Zach Duke's two starts have been somewhat impressive.  I know I'm hard on the guy, but this is the way he should be expected to pitch pretty much everytime out.  Let's hope Duke has a third solid start on Friday.  So far Duke is 2-0 with a 3.00 era in 12.0 ip.  I will take that.

THE BAD
- All other starters have combined for a 12.31 era

THE UGLY
- Daniel Mccutchen's fourth inning in which the D'backs scored a whopping 13 runs. (not all were charged to McCutchen but 9 overall were)

THE GOOD
- Charlie Morton's first 2 innings on Friday in which the first 5 outs came by strike out

THE BAD
-Charlie Morton's third and fourth innings where he continued to fall behind in the count and looked likie a different pitcher.

THE UGLY
- Ryan Doumit calling a lousy game for Morton.  If Adam Laroche said the D'Backs knew what was coming befor Doumit even called it, after the first time threw the order, that's not a good sign of a catcher being able to adjust when calling a game at the MLB level.

THE GOOD
-Octavio Dotel and most of the guys in the bullpen pounded the zone for the most part and showed they can get people out.

THE BAD
-Hayden Penn was lousy in three appearences.  The Dodgers first six batters got hits off penn in his Bucco debut.

THE UGLY
- Have I mentioned Hayden Penn?

THE GOOD
- Garrett Jones three homers in his first five at bats.

THE BAD
- Jones has had only 1 hit the last five games

THE UGLY
- There is no one to protect Jones.  Jones and Ryan Doumit are a combined 1 for their last 27

THE GOOD
- Not Ryan Doumit

THE BAD
-Ryan Doumit

THE UGLY
- Wait for it........ Wait for it....... Did you guess Ryan Doumit?

THE GOOD
-The Pirates have been agressive on the basepaths, going a perfect 8 for 8 swiping bags so far

THE BAD
-When your down 10 runs in half of your games, you can't utilize your speed and run much

THE UGLY
-Ryan Doumit....... I'm sorry, i couldn't resist

THE GOOD
- Aki Iwumura and Ronny Cedeno are off to surprising good starts

THE BAD
-Those are the only two off to good starts.

THE UGLY
-The next time someone gets a big hit with guys on base will be the first since Ryan Church's pinch hit opening day double.  Someone's gotta pick it up.

THE GOOD
- I've been happy so far with both Jeff Clement and Lastings Milledge.  The numbers will improve for both.  It's also encoraging to see the way Milledge is hustling all the time.  A sign of a guy taking things like it's his last opportunity.

THE BAD
- I like batting Milledge in the three hole, but he also must show some power.  He has had some bad luck early. scorching some balls right at people. However, if you bat Milledge third, Somehow, somewhere you have to protect Jones in the lineup or he won't see another good pitch to hit all season.

THE UGLY
- I can't resist.  Ryan Doumit.  He just isn't capable of batting in a run producing spot. With the way Cedeno and Aki have gotten on base early, batting the pitcher #8 isn't that terrible, but Doumit shouldn't be hitting above seventh.  He's lousy (Just watch, after I ripped him to death, he will have a huge game tonight)

FINALLY THE GOOD
- It's only been seven games.  We've got a lot of Bucco baseball to look forward to. (Technically, depending on your perspective, that last statement could also qualify as THE BAD & THE UGLY for you as well)

Take care and I will have something tomoorow as well.  If you haven't yet, go to http://www.lexy.com/ and follow our Pirates broadcat for the year.

Opening Day Success

Well I'm getting to this much later than I wanted to but what an opening day.  The Buccos performence was great in an 11-5 victory over the Dodgers, but among the longballs and solid effort from Zach Duke and the backend of the bullpen the main thing I took away from this one was the crowd.

 I attend 20-30 games a season, pretty much every season and at no time in the last 10-15 seasons, have I felt the energy at PNC Park that I did yesterday afternoon.  It made you happy to be a Pirates fan for a change.  I am often very critical of Pirates fans for their constant complaining and whining and general lack of baseball knowledge, but that wasn't the case yesterday afternoon.

It wasn't just due to it being opening day either.  There was a general positive energy through out the fourth largest crowd in PNC Park history.  The only sad part is that the energy and the size of the crowds will start to fade away, likely beginning with tomorrow night's game against the Dodgers.

As for the game, atleast for one day, we got a glimpse of what kind of potential talent this team could have if a ton of what if's come true.  While they will still finish with an 18th consecutive losing record, you could see that just maybe this team could turn the corner one day.

Offensively, they did it all.  Three bombs, including no doubters from Garrett Jones and Ryan Doumit. They utilized their speed, with Andrew McCutchen and Ronny Cedeno swiping bags.  They got timely hitting for a change when Ryan Church hit a two out pinch hit double that cleared the bases.  Lastings Milledge doubled and Jeff Clement reached base three times as well. Maybe as good as a game they may have offensively as a team all season.

They played solid defense as well. Clement played a solid game at first base in his first major league game there.  Milledge made a nice running catch in left and overall, the team made all the plays they should make.

On the hill,  Duke gave the team a decent start and the bullpen pitched well, especially the last 2 1/3 innings.  Brenden Donally got out of a jam with a couple of strikeouts and Octavio Dotel threw the ball extremely well.

Even manager John Russell had an impact.  Atleast for one day, he pushed all the right buttons.  Lifting Duke after five innings with the bases loaded was probably the call of the game.  He wanted to break the game open and he trusted his bullpen.  Even batting the pitcher eighth paid off for a day.  Would Ronny Cedeno have come through the way Ryan Church did?  Probably not.  I still don't like McCutchen hitting second, but it didn't have an impact yesterday.  In fact, it seemed to work out the way JR envisioned it.  Cedeno reached base a couple times and Cutch got at bats with men on base.

So be happy Bucco fans, your team looked great yesterday.  Don't over react though and raise expectations.  It is what it is- one win, that's it, but hey first place for a day, Right?

To hear Randy Gore and my new project covering the Pirates, go to http://www.lexy.com/ and sign up to follow the Pirates.  You will recieve daily game updates, commentaries, news stories etc. from us.  Here is a taste.  http://www.lexy.com/#/feed?id=1507

McCutchen wins Fifth Spot in Rotation

Finally we have seen a job won and lost based on performance with the Buccos.  Daniel McCutchen has been named the teams fifth starter, beating out Kevin Hart for the job.  McCutchen has been impressive all spring, although not against major league hitters all of the time.  The main thing that won him the job has been his ability to throw strikes consistently.

That's exactly what cost Hart the job.  After struggling at the end of last season, going 1-8 as a Pirate, Hart couldn't figure out the strike zone this spring either, with an alarming walk rate.  While many in the organization still consider Hart to have the better stuff of the two, his inabilty to throw strikes led to him being one of eight cuts.

Some have said McCutchen doesn't have great stuff, but I disagree.  His fastball may only top out at around 92, but he has pretty decent command of his two-seamer and breaking stuff and generally keeps the ball down in the zone.

While winning the fifth starter competition is big for McCutchen, it's not that big of a deal for the Pirates right off the bat.  Up until April 24th, the Bucs will only need to use their fifth starter once, on April 11th.

In addition to Hart, the Bucs also cut Chris Jakubauskas and Neil Walker- all three will be sent to AAA.  Brian Myrow, Hector Giminez, Brian Burress, Wil Ledezma and Jean Machi were all assigned to minor league camp.

OTHER NOTES
-Zach Duke was named opening day starter.  No surprise, but I didn't feel he was worthy off it.  I feel Ross Ohlendorf or Paul Maholm would have been a better choice.

-Octavio Dotel has been throwing to batters and should be ready for opening day.

- Not that spring averages mean much, but several pencilled in regulars have not swung the bat well.  All hitting under .200 for the spring are Aki Iwumara (.199), Jeff Clement (.194), Andy Laroche (.194) and Brandon Moss (a whopping .038)

-Former Bucco Nate McLouth is only 1 for 30 on the spring with 15 K's.

-Bucs got shelled by the Astros today 11-1.

Five Things That Need to Happen For the Pirates to Compete in 2010

It's the spring training opener and it's the usual time to say "What If," becuase when the calender turns May, we know we will more than likely be saying "Here We Go Again," for the 18th consecutive season.

As I get ready to watch some live spring training baseball on MLB Network, anything can happen.  Even the Pirates could (though not likely) catch lightning in a bottle.  here are five things the Bucs will need to happen in order to compete in 2010.

5. Bullpen-  The bullpen needs to be rock solid.  The signing of Octavio Dotel, for a change a good Bucco signing, needs to work.  Too many late leads blown the last couple of seasons.  A team like the Bucs can't blow 15-20 games that should be in the win column.

They have the arms in the pen to be successfull.  Dotel, Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek are all power right handed arms with tremendous stuff, they just have to do the job.

4. Break Out Season-  One of the holdovers finally has to have a breakout season.  I'm expecting Andrew McCutchen and Garrett Jones to get better, so who's it going to be? From a group of Andy Laroche, Brandon Moss, Lastings Milledge, Ryan Doumit and I will throw Jeff Clement's name in there for the hell of it- I'm looking at Milledge and/or Doumit.

Milledge has every tool and he's healthy and motivated.  He's running out of time so he's going to be the guy.  I like what he showed in his two month stint in Pittsburgh last season.  As for Doumit, everyone know how strongly I am not a fan of his, but similar to Milledge, he's running out of chances.

Doumit needs to stay healthy and start swinging the bat.  If one, or both have big seasons then suddenly the Bucs have a decent lineup throwing in Cutch and Jones.

3.Youth Be Served-  Pedro Alvarez will likely get the call sometime between June and July and possibly be joine in Pittsburgh by the much anticipated debuts of Jose Tabata and Brad Lincoln.  For the Bucs to have any shot at competing, Alvarez needs to come up and hit the cover off the ball from day one and hit with power.

It has been done.  Look at how Evan Longoria and Ryan Braun came up and made an immediate impact for the Rays and Brewers respectively.  Alvarez will be carrying a ton of pressure to be that big middle of the order bat that the Bucs so desperately need.  If Tabata and Lincoln could produce similar results then the Bucs would really have the ball rolling.

2. Starting pitching-  The Bucs have a young rotation and it's usually that third year around that young arms take the next step.  Paul Maholm should be the staff ace.  It's his time to get it done.  Charlie Morton will take big steps to becoming a legitimate big league guy. Ross Ohlendorf just needs to do exactly what he did last season.

Zach Duke flat out needs to be better.  Now I hear you saying that he was an all-star and the Bucs best pitcher last season.  He had an ok season and nothing better. A starters job is to give his team a chance to win everytime out and Duke doesn't do that.  The Bucs won only 11 times that Duke started last season, all 11 times Duke got the W.  He is either really good or really bad.  He needs to start performing like an ace.

Suddenly if the starters put things together then you have four guys, maybe five if Lincoln can come up after the all-star break, that can get deep into a ball game and give the team a chance to win.

If all four of these things happen and that's highly unlikely, but for this instance let's just say that they do.  Then the big thing that would have to happen in order for the Bucs to compete in 2010 is.............

1. Ownership Opens the Checkbook to Improve the Club-  Say the Bucs are hanging around .500 at the all-star break and are chasing a wild card spot.  What will Bob Nutting do?  Will he open the checkbook and go get the big power bat the team needs?  Will he add another big arm to the rotation?

Now Neil Huntington has said often that they have the resources to do exactly that.  I have been a big supporter of NH's in the past but when it comes down to this scenerio, I'm tired of the empty promises.  It's time to Show Me and quit telling me about what is going to happen.

When it comes down to it  as good as the players could possibly perform, we all know that Nutting will drop the ball at the end of the day.  Cross your fingers Pirates fans.                     

Joel Hanrahan Shut Down

It didn't take long for the Bucco's to make some news after pitchers and catchers reported to Bradenton.  Neil Huntington announced today that set up man Joel Hanrahan will be shut down due to elbow tightness.

Early reports say their is no structural damage and he will just be shutdown for the time being.  However, if Hanrahan is still feeling discomfort in the next two to three weeks, then it's the three words no pitcher ever wants to hear- Dr. James Andrews.

Even if Hanrahan can pitch through the pain, he should be considered doubtful to open the season with the Bucs.  Hanrahan was the Bucs most effective reliever after being acquired from the Nats in the Nyjer Morgan deal.  Opposing hitters batted only .160 off Hanrahan in August and September.  During that span he had a 0.42 ERA.

I liked the back end of the pen, with Hanrahan and Evan Meek setting up Octavio Dotel.  I expect Brenden Donelley to move into Hanrahan's role and DJ Carrasco to get a bigger workload as well.

Since he will likely begin the season on the DL, there is one more job availbale.  I don't expect NH to attempt to sign anyone else, he will just go with the guys he has.  While not big names, the Pirates do have a little depth in the bullpen this season.

What Pitchers Will make the Opening Day Roster?

Finally, I can get back to writing.  No more shoveling snow for the time being.  As pitchers and catchers get ready to report to Bradenton, let's discuss what pitchers are likely to head north with the big club for opening day.

Like I said in my last post, which seemed ages ago.  For the time being we will assume that JR is going to carry 12 pitchers on the opening day roster.

Starters
1. Zach Duke
2. Paul Maholm
3. Ross Ohlendorf
4. Charlie Morton
These four are locks
5. Kevin Hart, Danile McCutchen and Brad Lincoln

Lincoln appears to be a lock to begin the season with Indy and rightfully so.  He will likely get the call sometime in June or July.  A stong spring and good start to a AAA season could force the Bucs to rush him up sooner though.  Both Hart and McCutchen have shown they have the arm to succeed, but haven't had great results.  I think McCutchen has a better chance to be a good starter even though Hart has the edge when it comes to pure stuff.  As of now I give McCutchen the job as the fifth starter.

BULLPEN
Closer- Octavio Dotel.  This was actually a good signing by a Pirates team that hasn't had many in the last decade.  Dotel has pitched well the last couple of seasons and his stuff is still electric.

Set up Roles
1. Joel Hanrahan- Another righty with electric stuff.  Hanrahan had tremendous results with the Pirates after being acquired in July.  He also would step in as closer if Dotel falters.
2. Evan Meek- Another power righty who came along last season.  Meek pitched well and is said to be in fantastic shape.  He is a lock.
3. Brenden Donelley-  He pitched well at the end of last season, coming back from Tommy john Surgery and hopefully the veteren can carry that into the 2010 season.

The final two middle inning guys will come from a group of: DJ Carrasco, Javier Lopez, Jose Ascaino, Steven Jackson, Brian Bass, Tyler Yates, Jack Taschner, Neal Cotts and Brian Burress.  I probably left out a journey man looking for a job, but forgive me.

The two candidates will likely be who pitches better in spring games.  I like Ascaino's arm, but I'm giving the early edge to Carrasco, who has proved to be a durable innings eater out of the pen, and Lopez, who hasn't pitched well in a couple of seasons, but after not having a lefty after the Grabow trade, the Bucs will likely carry atleast one.  If Lopez struggles in the spring, it could open the door for Cotts or Taschner to make the team.

LONG RELIEVER
The final bull pen job will likely come down to the loser of the Hart/McCutchen battle,Chris Jakubauskus or Jeff Karstens.  I'm going to go with the loser of the Hart/McCutchen battle.  Hart I feel would do better in a bullpen role anyways and I have a hard time seeing the Bucs not keeping him.  He does have a great arm, the results must come though.

Pitching is going to have to be good for the Pirates to have any shot at competing in the near future.  Hopefully they can take the next step as a unit towards that goal.

Busy week for Bucs

A busy couple of weeks of moves for the Buccos.  The Bucs signed Ryan Church to a 1yr/1.5mil deal as a fourth outfielder.  I like the move.  Could be a good bench guy.  He is a good fit for the Pirates.  He hits left handed, something they desperately need.  He also plays solid defense and could play everyday if Jeff Clement doesn't work out at first base and they have to move Garrett Jones there.  He was often injured last season, splitting time between the Mets and Braves, combining to hit .273.  Church only hit four homers last season, but did hit 15 in 2007 with Washington.  Not a splashy type of signing, but teams need good bench guys also.

The Bucs also signed a couple relievers in D.J Carassco and Brenden Donnelly.  Carrasco is 32 and will earn a 950k base salary if he makes the squad.  He had a god year with the White Sox last season, posting a 3.76 era in 93.3 innings pitched.  Intresting that Carrasco and Brian Bass (who also signed a minor league deal with the Bucs) were 1&2 in the majors last season in innings pitched by relievers.

Donnelly was signed to a major league deal for 1yr/1.35mil.  He is a bit of a risk, coming off Tommy John surgery in 2007.  He saw his first big league action since 07 last year with the Marlins and was very effective, posting an era under 1.5 in slightly over 25 innings pitched.

The Bucs are also very close to signing Octavio Dotel.

The Pirates also cleared a spot for Donelly on the 40 man roster by dealing Brian Bixler to the Indians for ss Jesus Brito.  I don't know much about him but he is 22 and hit .353 combined between the Indians Rookie and Short Season teams.

I believe for Dotel to be signed, another spot on the 40 man must be cleared.  The likely guy in my mind to be released or dealt is Steve Pearce.

Again, not big named relievers, but the bullpen should be a bit more reliable this season.

One funny note is that with the signings of Donnelly, Carrasco and Chris Jakubauskas- that gives the Bucs three pitchers that used to pitch  in the Frontier League.  Probably three too many.