Showing posts with label Jeff Karstens. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jeff Karstens. Show all posts

Saturday, July 10, 2010

A look at the Pirates Mid-Season Awards

Tonight's game has already made me angry and it's only the third inning, so I figured I'd get a column written.

Since we are approaching the all-star break, let's take a look at the Pirates mid-season awards.

MVP- Andrew McCutchen.  Cutch is really the only choice here on a team filled with under achievers.  McCutchen is hitting a solid .292 with with 8HR/26 RBI.  He has also racked up 20 steals and played a solid center field for the Bucs.  You also would think the numbers would be even better had John Russell not foolishly taken him out of the leadoff spot for most of the season.

LVP- Charlie Morton.  I considered several players here, but Morton is actually an easy choice.  The Pirates needed Morton to emerge into a potential top of the rotation guy and instead have received a 1-9 record and a 9.35 era.  Also considered for the prestigious award were: Zach Duke, Ryan Doumit and John Russell.

Rookie of the Year- Neil Walker.  Walker has surprised many after his call-up in late May.  He looks like a natural at second base and his bat has been a big surprise, hitting .289, 3/12 at this point.  Also considered were:  Jose Tabata, Brad Lincoln and Pedro Alvarez.  Walker has done the most to impress at this point.

Unsung Hero- Jeff Karstens.  Karstens was designated for assignment in the off-season, but accepted his demotion to AAA and made his way back to the big club.  Once he arrived again, Karstens has filled any role asked of him and has done so effectively.  Quite simply, Karstens just takes the ball and does his job.

Best Moment- April 5, 2010- Opening Day.  Just to see real excitement back at PNC Park was a special thing to witness.  The crowd created the most energy on that day than it has for the past decade.  The game helped also as Garrett Jones hit a pair of homers to help the Pirates to an 11-5 win over the Dodgers.  That day alone still gave me hope that people can support this team.  Hopefully we can witness that on a nightly basis in the near future.

Worst Moment- April 22, 2010- The 20-0 loss to the Brewers. In what seemed to be a long stretch of blowouts with the Pirates on the wrong end, this one was the worst as the Pirates suffered their worst loss in franchise history.  What made the loss even worse was the carefree attitude of John Russell, explaining, "These kind of games happen from time to time."  Really JR?  The last time I checked, they have happened only like five times in MLB history.

Most Glaring Stat- Stolen bases against the Pirates.  This has become embarrassing.  Teams have attempted 94 stolen bases against the Pirates and have been successful 82 times.  How did we ever throw out 12?  It's a miracle.  If your scoring at home, teams are stealing at an 88% clip on the Pirates.  A change has to be made in both the catcher and the way the Pirates control the running game, from both the bench and the mound.  Which leads me to.......

Player that has to be Dealt at the Deadline- Ryan Doumit.  It's just wishful thinking, because the organization is in love with Doumit, but he brings nothing to the team. he is the worst defensive catcher in the game and his bat doesn't offer much. he's a natural rally killer and has a lazy way about him on the field.  Sure he can get on a hot streak twice a year for about two weeks at a time, but the time is now to move him.

Doumit has had plenty of opportunities throughout his six seasons with the club and has failed to produce.  He's not a middle of the order type hitter. He's not a run producer.  He is a liability to a young pitching staff.  He has very little value to this team.  His time in Pittsburgh should be up.  Move him now.

Biggest Surprise- Evan Meek.  You could tell Meek was going to be good.  His power right arm started to flourish at the end of last season in the Pirates bullpen, but no one could have expected the first half Meek delivered.  After last night, his ERA finally rose above one, but Meek has been nothing short of outstanding.  He is headed to the all-star game and it's well deserved.  Meek should end up as the future closer of this team. 

Also considered as a surprise could be the Pirates record at home this season, where they are a respectable 19-20, and the fact that John Russell still has a job is very surprising, but Meek is the easy winner of the award

Biggest Disapointment- Starting Staff as a Whole. Going into this season, it looked like the Pirates rotation would take a big step forward and help this team become competitive.  Instead, the combination of: Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, Charlie Morton, Brian Burres, Brad Lincoln, Daniel McCutchen, Dana Eveland, and Chris Jakubauskas have combined to post a 16-46 record to go with an awful 5.70 era.

Maholm leads the staff with five wins, with Duke the next closest with three.  The Pirates also became the first team in MLB history to have three starting pitchers record their first wins of the season at the end of June, which they accomplished on three consecutive days.

What's worse about the starters is the general approach.  Outside of Maholm, no Pirates starter will work the inner half of the plate. Too many hitters are hanging out over the plate against the Pirates because they aren't worried about them coming inside. The strike out to walk ratio is also very alarming.  Pirates starters have only struck out 285 batters, yet have issued 181 free passes, not nearly even approaching a 2-1 ratio.  Maholm leads the starters with 56 punch outs.  Joel Hanrahan has 51 strike outs out of the pen in 60 fewer innings pitched, more than any other Pirates starter.

There have been plenty of other first half disappointments, including:  Ryan Doumit, Andy Laroche, Ryan Church and the play of the team on the road, but nothing has been more disapointing than the way the starting staff has pitched.

Dumbest Quote- Frank Coonelly. This was a very tough category to award a winner in because Pirates management has fed us a long line of bad quotes, but four come to mind and Coonelly takes home the trophy.  Coonelly said during the initial gathering of the team during spring training, "'Don't let people tell you that the Pirates have a great future, but it's not today.' Today is our future. 2010 is the beginning of the next dynasty of the Pirates."

Runner-ups- John Russell- "These guys don't realize how close they are to being a really great team."

Neil Huntington- "Dana Eveland is a 26-year-old left-hander who has shown the ability to be an effective major-league starting pitcher. He has an interesting four-pitch mix, and we feel this acquisition is a potential upgrade for our current rotation with the upside of years of control and improved production.”



Eveland lasted 9.2 innings as a Pirate, going 0-1 with an 8.38 era.

I love the enthusiasm of all the quotes, but please don't treat the fans like we are stupid.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

What to do with Ross Ohlendorf and the Other Pirates Starters


Another Pirates game, another Pirates loss and another up and down outing from a Pirates starting pitcher.  Last night it was a typical Pirates start.  A few very good innings and then one thing goes wrong and the starter goes down hill both mentally and physically.

Ross Ohlendorf last night cruised through three innings. Yet,  the second time through the order struggled big time once again.  The problem always seems to be that the opposing hitters adjust the second time through, but the Pirates pitchers aren't capable of making adjustments as well.  If you want to throw some of the blame at Ryan Doumit as well, I'm fine with that;  but take Brad Lincoln out of the equation and these guys aren't rookies anymore.  They need to be better as a group.

What should the Pirates do?  Looking at all of the young guys they brought up.  For argument's sake, let's just say that by next season things start coming together and they have an above average offense that can score at or above the league average.  If that happens, well they still have no starting pitching.  I don't care what league you are playing in, you have to have good starting pitching to compete.

Let's take a look at the current crop of arms.

1. Zach Duke (3-8, 5.49era)-  The gutless wonder as I like to call him.  Duke may be a fifth starter on an average team.  It amazes me how he is aggressive in the zone until he gets two strikes on hitters.  I felt they should have dealt Duke last season when his value was at it's highest. It will now never be higher.  Duke simply doesn't have the ability to get consistent outs on a consistent basis.  He may throw you a gem every two months, but that's what fifth starters do for you.  Top of the rotation guys are supposed to take the ball every fifth day and give you a chance to win.  Duke isn't in that class of pitcher.  He will always be more than a hit an inning type of guy.

2. Paul Maholm (4-5, 3.77)- Maholm is hands down the team's best pitcher.  He battles and gives the team an opportunity to win most night's out.  That's all I can really ask for.  He doesn't give into hitters the way Duke does.  He doesn't have the greatest stuff, but will challenge hitters all game long.  Maholm is a three or four starter but he is a keeper.

3. Ross Ohlendorf (0-6, 5.43)-  Ohlendorf is similar to Charlie Morton, to the point I can't figure either out.  Ohlendorf has had some bad luck, but like Morton, seems to suffer mentally when things start to break down.  I'm concerned about his dip in velocity. He still may be having some back issues as well.   I don't think Ohlendorf is as good as his numbers from a year ago, but I don't think he's as bad as his current numbers.  In a perfect situation, Ohlendorf is a good back of the rotation guy.

4. Brad Lincoln (0-1, 6.50)- I'm not concerned with Lincoln at all.  He's pitching like most rookies pitch-up and down.  He has glimpses of looking dominant and at other times, well he looks like a rookie.  Rookie pitchers in the majors aren't supposed to look like Stephen Strasburg, They tend to fare more like Lincoln. He's got great movement on his pitches.  I would like to see him utilize his changeup more, especially to left hand hitters.  Overall, Lincoln should be fine.  It's three starts.  I don't think he will eventually be a one or two type starter, but instead; will be a solid middle of the rotation guy.

5. Jeff Karstens (2-2, 4.72)- Say what you want about Karstens, but Karstens flat out does his job.  He doesn't necessarily have major league stuff, but what Karstens does is compete.  Karstens hangs around just long enough to give the team a chance to win most night's.  He's not pretty and definitely not overpowering, but he is gutsy.  Team's often need a guy like Karstens.  I have no problem giving him the ball.

Overall, you look at the current crop of starters and basically, we have a pair of number three's (Lincoln and Maholm) and really three guys who wouldn't be in most rotations around baseball.

Facts are the Pirates need pitching as much as talented position players such as Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata.  The next wave of arms to come through are all performing well at Altoona.  That list includes Rudy Owens, Bryan Morris, Tim Alderson (although his drop in velocity concerns me as well), Jared Hughes and Justin Wilson.  Also keep an eye on Nathan Adcock and Jeff Locke, currently performing well at Bradenton.

Add to that a draft class that includes power arms Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie (who the team MUST sign both), the future staff has some promise, but that's still probably two years away.

You can root for Alvarez and for the Pirates to promote Tony Sanchez all you want, but any success for the Pirates in the future depend solely on the arms in the organization.  Hopefully, a few can get to the big club within the next season or so, because the current crop of arms just won't get the job done.

Sunday, May 9, 2010

Battle For Fifth Spot in Rotation

Other than today's outing by Paul Maholm, the Pirates starting rotation has been starting to pitch well of late.  With Ross Ohlendorf scheduled to get the ball tomorrow, spots 1-4 are secure for really the first time all season.

Manager John Russell had a tough decision to make on who will fill that number five spot for the time being.  Both candidates- Brian Burres and Jeff Karstens have thrown well of late and coming off of their last performances, both deserve to get another chance at starting.

Let's look at the season numbers

Burres- 2-1, 4.09 era. 22ip, 21h, 10er 14bb, 13k
Karstens- 1-1, 4.08era. 17.2ip, 20h, 8er, 7bb, 11k

Both guys have had similar numbers and similar outings- 2 good starts and 1 bad one.

Russell announced that Burres will get the ball and Karstens will head to the pen.  Did he make the right decision?  In this case I'm going to say yes, but only for the short term.

Burres has allowed 10 runs, but six came in his first start and four came in a bullpen outing.  In his last 12.1 innings of work, Burres has allowed only seven hits and hasn't allowed a run.  How do you not give him the ball again.

Karstens has shown in the past that he was pretty valuable as a swing guy.  Preforming well as a long guy and can spot start if necessary.

In the end though, does it really matter?  That fifth spot will go to Brad Lincoln sometime this season anyways, so Burress is just keeping it warm for him.  In the meantime though, it would be nice to see what this kid can do a couple more times through the rotation.

Saturday, May 8, 2010

Looking at the Quality Start


Another quality start for a Pirates pitcher tonight. This time it was Jeff Karstens pitching well in a 2-0 win over the Cardinals.

No team has played by the theory of good pitching beats good hitting more than these Buccos.  I've been charting the outings all season and it breaks down like this.  Through 30 games, the Pirates have gotten 15 quality starts and 15 very bad starts.

I'm not that big on the quality start numbers, I prefer to go by the eye test.  I still look at the six inning pitched and three earned runs or less, but I prefer to go by "Did the starting pitcher give the team a chance to win today" theory.  Yes, I know, I'm an innovator.

Let's take a look.  When the Pirates receive a quality start, they are 13-2 as a team and their starters are sporting an impressive 2.55 era.  Paul Maholm has led the team with five of my quality starts, followed by Zach Duke with four and Brian Burres and Jeff Karstens with two a piece.

When the Pirates don't get a quality start, it's ugly.  They are 1-14 as a team and have an astronomical era of 12.24  Naturally, Charlie Morton leads the team with five non-quality starts, followed by Duke with three.

When this team gets good pitching, they are a fun team to watch.  If they get quality starts and can score just enough runs to win; then the power arms in the bullpen can really be effective.  I know it's a cliche, but all they need from their starters are six quality innings.  They currently have a effective late innings bullpen with Evan Meek in the seventh, Joel Hanrahan in the eighth and Octavio Dotel in the ninth.

It's been 30 games, so teams begin to show trends.  The trend of this Pirates team is the quality start.  They can hang around the .500 mark for a while if and only if the starting pitching continues to perform well.

Check back tomorrow and I will break down John Russell's tough decision that lays in front of him.  With Ross Ohlendorf coming back to the rotation on Monday, one of Karstens or Burres will be out of the rotation.  Both guys have pitched well and coming off their last outings. deserve to get the ball again.

Check out our post-game report, following tonight's win, featuring Randy Gore.  Click HERE

Until then.  Let's Go Bucs