McCutchen wins Fifth Spot in Rotation

Finally we have seen a job won and lost based on performance with the Buccos.  Daniel McCutchen has been named the teams fifth starter, beating out Kevin Hart for the job.  McCutchen has been impressive all spring, although not against major league hitters all of the time.  The main thing that won him the job has been his ability to throw strikes consistently.

That's exactly what cost Hart the job.  After struggling at the end of last season, going 1-8 as a Pirate, Hart couldn't figure out the strike zone this spring either, with an alarming walk rate.  While many in the organization still consider Hart to have the better stuff of the two, his inabilty to throw strikes led to him being one of eight cuts.

Some have said McCutchen doesn't have great stuff, but I disagree.  His fastball may only top out at around 92, but he has pretty decent command of his two-seamer and breaking stuff and generally keeps the ball down in the zone.

While winning the fifth starter competition is big for McCutchen, it's not that big of a deal for the Pirates right off the bat.  Up until April 24th, the Bucs will only need to use their fifth starter once, on April 11th.

In addition to Hart, the Bucs also cut Chris Jakubauskas and Neil Walker- all three will be sent to AAA.  Brian Myrow, Hector Giminez, Brian Burress, Wil Ledezma and Jean Machi were all assigned to minor league camp.

OTHER NOTES
-Zach Duke was named opening day starter.  No surprise, but I didn't feel he was worthy off it.  I feel Ross Ohlendorf or Paul Maholm would have been a better choice.

-Octavio Dotel has been throwing to batters and should be ready for opening day.

- Not that spring averages mean much, but several pencilled in regulars have not swung the bat well.  All hitting under .200 for the spring are Aki Iwumara (.199), Jeff Clement (.194), Andy Laroche (.194) and Brandon Moss (a whopping .038)

-Former Bucco Nate McLouth is only 1 for 30 on the spring with 15 K's.

-Bucs got shelled by the Astros today 11-1.

What Pitchers Will make the Opening Day Roster?

Finally, I can get back to writing.  No more shoveling snow for the time being.  As pitchers and catchers get ready to report to Bradenton, let's discuss what pitchers are likely to head north with the big club for opening day.

Like I said in my last post, which seemed ages ago.  For the time being we will assume that JR is going to carry 12 pitchers on the opening day roster.

Starters
1. Zach Duke
2. Paul Maholm
3. Ross Ohlendorf
4. Charlie Morton
These four are locks
5. Kevin Hart, Danile McCutchen and Brad Lincoln

Lincoln appears to be a lock to begin the season with Indy and rightfully so.  He will likely get the call sometime in June or July.  A stong spring and good start to a AAA season could force the Bucs to rush him up sooner though.  Both Hart and McCutchen have shown they have the arm to succeed, but haven't had great results.  I think McCutchen has a better chance to be a good starter even though Hart has the edge when it comes to pure stuff.  As of now I give McCutchen the job as the fifth starter.

BULLPEN
Closer- Octavio Dotel.  This was actually a good signing by a Pirates team that hasn't had many in the last decade.  Dotel has pitched well the last couple of seasons and his stuff is still electric.

Set up Roles
1. Joel Hanrahan- Another righty with electric stuff.  Hanrahan had tremendous results with the Pirates after being acquired in July.  He also would step in as closer if Dotel falters.
2. Evan Meek- Another power righty who came along last season.  Meek pitched well and is said to be in fantastic shape.  He is a lock.
3. Brenden Donelley-  He pitched well at the end of last season, coming back from Tommy john Surgery and hopefully the veteren can carry that into the 2010 season.

The final two middle inning guys will come from a group of: DJ Carrasco, Javier Lopez, Jose Ascaino, Steven Jackson, Brian Bass, Tyler Yates, Jack Taschner, Neal Cotts and Brian Burress.  I probably left out a journey man looking for a job, but forgive me.

The two candidates will likely be who pitches better in spring games.  I like Ascaino's arm, but I'm giving the early edge to Carrasco, who has proved to be a durable innings eater out of the pen, and Lopez, who hasn't pitched well in a couple of seasons, but after not having a lefty after the Grabow trade, the Bucs will likely carry atleast one.  If Lopez struggles in the spring, it could open the door for Cotts or Taschner to make the team.

LONG RELIEVER
The final bull pen job will likely come down to the loser of the Hart/McCutchen battle,Chris Jakubauskus or Jeff Karstens.  I'm going to go with the loser of the Hart/McCutchen battle.  Hart I feel would do better in a bullpen role anyways and I have a hard time seeing the Bucs not keeping him.  He does have a great arm, the results must come though.

Pitching is going to have to be good for the Pirates to have any shot at competing in the near future.  Hopefully they can take the next step as a unit towards that goal.

Evaluating Prospects

Very interesting list on Baseball America. Top Prospects of All-Time. Check it out
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

Next Check out who ranks 1 & 2 on the Baseball America Prospect Hot Sheet
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2009/268713.html

First of all, I am big on rankings and evaluations of young players, but they must be taken with a grain of salt. Not all guys ranked high have gone on to become solid Major League Players, but more often than not, they do. I always say the biggest transition is from AA or AAA to the MLB. Some guys can handle it and some guys simply can not.

I have heard in the past that I have defended Neil Huntington too much. I am not necessarily a fan of his, but he has a job to do and he has stuck to the plan so far, which I commend. He had to blow this franchise up.


Why have we been losing for 17 seasons? It's a direct correlation to developing young talent. I will go all the way back to the last winning seasons in Pittsburgh. If you clicked on the first link above, you saw the Baseball America Top 100 Prospects list for every season dating back to 1990. That season, the Bucs had 3 of the top 100. They dealt 2 of those (Moises Alou and Willie Greene) to acquire Zane Smith, which helped them win two Division titles.

Taking Alou and Greene off the list, it amazed me how truly sad we have been at drafting and developing young talent. I didn't even think we were this bad. If you didn't read the list:

90 Keith Richardson #73 (never pitched for Pirates)
91 Kurt Miller #24 (never Pitched for Pirates
Carlos Garcia # 62 (average major league 2B
Mike Zimmerman #90 (never amounted to anything)
92 Steve Cooke #52 (below average mlb pitcher)
Kevin Young #100 (average mlb player)
93 None
94 Midre Cummings #33 (career was a joke)
95 "Steamin" Trey Beamon #43 (don't think he had a career)
96 Jason Kendall #26 (has had a productive career)
Chad Hermanson #54 (The savior)
97 Kris Benson #8 (arm injuries derailed a potentially good career)
Jose Guillen #24 (never really met expectations, but a serviceable career)
Aramis Rameriz #26 (the best one we had that got away)
Abraham Nunez #65 (career utility player)
Jimmy Anderson #88 (2 time opening day starter. Boy did he suck)
98 Jeff Wallace #91 (no career)
99 Warren Morris #84 (one good year in the bigs)
00 JJ Davis #97 (BUM)
01 Bobby Bradley #20 (Arm Injuries, never made it)
JR House #21 (Left to play football)
02 John Van Benschoten #88 ( Could be the worst pitcher & draft pick ever)
03 None
04 Sean Burnett #64 (under achiever)
Jason Bay #74 (very good mlb ball player)
Bryan Bullington #97 (Could have had B.J. Upton. #1 Pick that never got a win for the Pirates)
05 Zach Duke #34 (becoming a solid MLB pitcher)
Neil Walker #81 ( finally starting to hit in the minors 4 years later. Probably no future)
06 Andrew McCutchen #50 (STUD)
Tom Gorzelanny #95 (average mlb pitcher at best)
07 Brad Lincoln #69 (future staff ace?)
08 Steve Pearce #89 (has no mlb future, bench role at best)

Now for purpose of this post, I only included the players for the first season they cracked the top 100. Some players have made the list multiple seasons. Do all guys pan out? Of course not. Do things happen along the way, like injuries? Of course they do. Do the rankings flat out miss on guys? Yes they do.

For this illustration however, take a look at the complete list and they tend to get it right most of the time. My list is primarily just to illustrate the pure lack of homegrown young talent in the Pirates system for the last 17 years. Folks, it's plain and simple why we can't win. We had to make the moves we did. We had to get talent in this system somehow.

We gave away Aramis Rameriz, but in 17 seasons, only Rameriz, Kendall, Duke, Bay and most recently McCutchen have had legit major league talent. That's 5 guys in 17 seasons and it's not acceptable. The two highest rated prospect on this list that the Bucs have ever had were Kris Benson in 1998 and McCutchen at #13 In 2007.

There is a correlation to winning with these list. Every team that has had many of these prospects have been legit winning organizations. Even look at the Tampa rays of 08, who in the 2 season prior had 24 names on that list. No reason the Bucs should have had 1 guy here and another one there. That's not doing your homework on young players and that's not how you win.

So Huntington had to blow up the team and in the last calender year, look at the potential talent he has added. On the 2008 top 100, there were 10 current Buccos represented. Only 4 were in the organization prior to Huntington's arrival: McCutchen, Lincoln, Pearce and Walker. The new 6 on the list include: Laroche, Tabata, Clement, Alderson, Hernandez and Milledge.

Now that list doesn't include guys who will be on the 2009 list like Alvarez, Sanchez, Owens, etc. Nor does it include any members of the last two drafts, in which the franchise has gone out and spent money on their future. that list will include another 10-15 young, future Pirates So it's almost impossible for me to argue that Huntington hasn't been taking the right approach to this organization.

Next click on the second link and read Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet, ranking the Mid-Season Prospects. Numbers 1 & 2 on the list are Tony Sanchez and Pedro Alvarez. Again, will all of the youngster become solid major leaguers? No, but it gives hope. Even if a third of them do, it's far more talent than we have had in 17 seasons, so it's impossible again to knock the approach.

Want a little more proof that Neil Huntington is doing the right thing? Would you rather watch Ross Ohlendorff, Charlie Morton and Kevin Hart pitch or last years solid rotation including Yoslan Herrara, John Van Benschoten, Matt Morris, etc. The facts are we are slowly getting better.

The final thing I am sick and tired of people telling me is that as soon as these guys get good, then Huntington will trade them. That's absurd to begin with. All of the guys dealt this year were unlikely to be back anyways. Huntington acquired guys with right he can control through 2015 and 2016 in most cases. Again, it shows that the guy seems to have a baseball head about him.

So if it sounds like I'm being a mark for Neil Huntington, so be it. The facts are that there is more talent in this organization than at any point in the last 17 seasons. Will the plan work? Only time will tell, but it's a good time to get excited about Pirates baseball. This thing could finally turn around in a couple of seasons.

NOTEBOOK
- since I brought up Chad Hermansen, made me think of one of my favorite lines of all time. One scout said about Hermansen " Chad Hermansen can walk on water. He just can't hit."

- Steven Jackson been throwing well lately. Last 14 appearances, his era is under 2.00

-Matt Capps fastball had life to it on the home stand. Deal him now. While I'm at it, will anyone take Ryan Doumit

-Lastings Milledge is starting to play well once he got taken out of the 2 hole.

-I really like these group of guys, one challenge for Huntington is to find a power bat next season. I don't think Alvarez will be up and as much as I like Andy Laroche, I can't have him hitting cleanup next season. Although I think he has done fine there in his couple starts.

- Cedeno is nursing a hurt pinkie finger so I'd like to see Bixler play. He has no pressure on him now. Just see what he really is.

- Here is where young teams struggle. Consistent Offense production and winning on the road. We have seen both big time. We know about the struggles offensively, but look at the home and road splits. Home record is five games over .500 at 33-28. Road record is an atrocious 25 games under .500 at 18-43. Once they can learn to play near .500 away from PNC Park, they can start putting winning streaks together

A Tale of Two Teams

I haven't had a chance to post in a week, but I have some time now and what I watched the last two nights wasn't close to the same team. On Tuesday, we saw a young, energetic, aggressive team that was fun to watch. Patient at the plate, aggressive on the base paths, taking advantage of opportunities, timely hitting and good defense. Good pitching, (even the bullpen) and an overall team performance that was fun to watch. The Bucs broke their losing streak and even manged to win a game on the road. I was happy going to bed on Tuesday.

Last night, however; my mood changed totally after watching the miserable performance the Bucs displayed. Pretty much the same line up, but a totally different team. Granted, Ubaldo Jimenez was very good, but the Bucs made it easy on him. Let's start offensively, where was the approach from the night before? The same team that worked the count all game was gone. The same team that had a good opposite field approach was gone. The same team that utilizes both gaps was gone. Yes, a mere 24 hours later, we saw a free swinging, swing for the fences type of team that hasn't been winning lately. When the Bucs offense struggles, they are a very boring team to watch.

It's truly nothing to panic about though. They are a young team. They are going to be very inconsistent. Unfortunately, that tends to show on the offensive end of things. The don't have much power so to score runs, they rely on several guys having to hit well in the same day. The important thing is that these guys that are going to be around keep getting their at bats and get a whole season under their belt.

NOTES

- I thought Hart threw well last night, at least through 5. He has good enough stuff and the pitches he got beat on were actually good pitches. He seems to have the mental make up of a top of the rotation guy, which is always a good thing. I would like to see him get strike one more often though,

-Meek lands on 15 day DL. Probably a good thing. I like Meek's arm a lot, but suddenly with Meek, Chavez, Hanrahan, Capps, etc., the Bucs suddenly have too many of the same style of pitcher in their pen. Power arm, live fastball, suspect breaking stuff.

-With the Pirates, Lastings Milledge is hitting around .280, which is fine. I need some power and speed though. That seems to be a problem with many of the younger acquisitions of late. The power just hasn't come out. I will break down Milledge tomorrow in a new post.

- Why can't Jones seem to hit with guys on base? He tears the cover off the ball with the bases empty. His 12 Hr is a nice number, but I would like to see more than the 20 RBI's. I believe he has driven in only 4 runs that haven't come by the long ball and 9 of his 12Hr's have been solo shots. I like Jones a ton, but if he is going to be a middle of the order type hitter, he has to perform like it. Middle of the order guys drive in runs.

- Is anyone else tired of watching Ryan No-Mitt catch. I am. I hate how he calls a game. He doesn't block balls well and he has a below average arm. How many more times do I have to watch him call 3 straight fastballs in the same location then seeing the third one blistered. If that's not bad enough, where has that bat been. I have never been convinced that Doumit is an everyday player, especially behind the dish. he is a middle of the order rally killer and I would hope they consider dealing him in the off season. he has shown me nothing in the last 4 seasons to warrant sticking around.

- Piraes Fans have to love Cedeno at short. The right side of the infield in still excellent defensively. Cedeno and Laroche are fabulous with the glove and Young is looking more comfortable at second. I also like Pearce's glove at first.......BUT

- Let's end the Steve Pearce experiment. Keep him as a bench player though. Either make Jones the everyday first baseman or let's get a look at Clement, who is hitting very well at Indy.

-McCutchen is a flat out stud. I like what I saw on Tuesday. The only thing I have wanted to see more out of him is for Cutch to be more aggressive on the base paths. he picked his spots and stole 3 bases easily. He is improving in every aspect of his game every day. It just means he is becoming a complete ball player, one day at a time.

- What this team lacks is a leader. No disrespect to Ramon Vasquez or even No-Mitt, but they need a leader, or several; especially when things are going bad.

-Check back tomorrow for a story on Milledge and this weekend I will have my minor league report. Let's Go Bucs

New Look Buccos Debut with Success

Before I get into last night's game, I have to address the comments made by former Bucco Sean Burnett. He said, "We (Nyjer and him) saw this coming. They are the laughing stock of baseball." My initial reaction was "Who the F@#K are you."

Reality check to Mr. Burnett. YOU were part of the problem and the losing culture here as well. YOU were the guy that was a first round pick that never realized his potential. While not a huge part, you were still part of the problems which initiated all the moves to begin with. I will give credit when credit is due, you have become a decent lefty out of the pen, but you did nothing here except under achieve.

As far as the laughing stock comment, another reality check. Look at the name on YOUR jersey, that is if it is even spelled right. Yeah buddy, you play for the 30 win Nats and you have the balls to call out other franchises. Right now you are as low as you can be. At least the Bucs are taking the right steps to TRY and have a winning future. What have the Nats done, other than drafting Steven Strausberg, who they probably won't even sign. The future is alot brighter here then it is in Washington so you should probably keep your mouth shut.

By no means am I saying this franchise is in good shape. We will be a laughing stock until we start winning. However, for a guy like Burnett to criticize the Bucs, when he is in a far worse situation is ridiculous. He Sean, I will give you something to laugh at...........your career.

As far as the performance last night, I was excited. The lineup wasn't bad. it was no worse than it was before the deals, in fact I may like it better. Nice debut for Milledge and Cedeno. Also good for Pearce, starting to hit the ball with authority. maybe getting Clement lit a fire under him. A nice start by Ohlendorff as well. The only guy that was disappointing was Hanrahan. I think some of it was due to playing his former team.

The thing I noticed is that there was an extra step to these guys last night. A lot more energy out of the guys and they were having fun. They are definitely a more athletic team and will be fun to watch the rest of the season.

NOTES

-Andy Laroche is quietly becoming an excellent defensive third baseman.

- Fine job by Evan meek and Jessie Chavez getting big outs in big spots.

-Funny that Garrett Jones is the team leader in homers with 10, despite only being up for a month. The RBI leader is Andy Laroche with 38.

-Newly acquired Jeff Clement homered in his first two AB's at Indy.

-Tim Alderson goes tonight for Altoona

-Virgil Vasquez goes tonight for the Bucs, but expect it to be the last time. Kevin Hart will pitch on Wed.

-If you noticed, Nyjer Morgan is still a lousy base runner, getting picked off AGAIN by a right handed pitcher

Bucs Keep Dealing- Grabow Next To Go

Another day, another trade made by Neil Huntington. This time it's free agent to be John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny to the Cubs for right handed pitchers Kevin Hart and Jose Ascaino, along with Class A infielder Josh Harrison.

I'm not surprised, as we all expected this. As far as the return, it's fine with me. Huntington continues to add arms, which the organization desperately needs. The return doesn't have tremendous upside, but he wasn't going to get a big return for Grabow alone. I may have wanted to see Huntington try and package Grabow with either Duke, Maholm or Capps and see if he could get one more big haul before the deadline.

Hart threw today for the Cubs and threw pretty well. I have seen his last 3 starts with the Cubs and like what I have seen. He struggles with his command at times, but I like him. He has made 8 appearances with the Cubs this season, including 4 starts. He is 3-1 with a 2.60 era. Before his start today, he is allowing less than a hit an inning. The only problem so far has been his 18 bb to 13 k's in 27.2ip. He allowed only 1 bb in 6ip today though, looking good getting the win for the Cubs. Hart began the season as the 6th rated prospect in the Cubs system. I expect him to join the Bucs rotation, possibly replacing Virgil Vasquez.

Ascaino has also seen big league time with the Cubs this year. In 14 relief appearances with the Cubs, he was 0-1 with a 3.52era. He is a hard thrower and has struck out 18 compared to 9 bb in 15ip at the MLB level. He allowed less than a hit per inning while on the big league roster. While in AAA, he was viewed primarily as a starter, which is what I think the Bucs will do with him. At AAA Iowa, Ascaino was 2-4, with a 3.16 era in 12 starts. In 51 innings, the ratios applied there as well. Less than a hit an inning and a nice 47k's to 18bb's. He was once a highly thought of prospect in the Cubs system, but despite putting up solid minor league numbers, seemed to be forgotten about. I like his live arm, with his fastball usually touching 95-98 mph. He will probably report to AAA Indy.

As far as, Harrison. He seems like a nice player, and is considered a decent prospect. Harrison, primarily a left fielder/third baseman this season, but his primary position had been second base, has put up solid numbers during the season. He played 79 games at Class A Peroria, hitting .337 with 4 HR/33Rbi and swiped 16 bags. he was promoted to High A Dayton and has played 18 games, hitting .286 with a homer and 9 RBI's. By the way, the major league player that he is compared to the most.....Freddy Sanchez.

I don't have a problem with this deal at all. I like adding the 2 arms and if Harrison progresses, then it's a bonus. The deal does leave John Russell with only Donnie Veal as a lefty in the pen, and there really isn't one to call up. I don't expect JR to be playing many match ups the rest of the season. As far as Gorzo goes, we did kind of sell low there, but face it, he wasn't going to get another shot in Pittsburgh.

While the Bucs are younger the rest of the season, the Altoona and West Virginia teams contain pretty much the entire future of the team, which wasn't the case a season ago. i applaud Huntington for sticking to the plan and blowing the whole thing up. A total rebuild was needed and it's good to see he is committed to it, instead of dealing just one or two vets. I would still like to see Capps dealt (I just read the Dodgers are interested). Remember, the goal isn't .500. the goal is to eventually put a playoff caliber team on the field every season.