What to do with Ross Ohlendorf and the Other Pirates Starters

Another Pirates game, another Pirates loss and another up and down outing from a Pirates starting pitcher.  Last night it was a typical Pirates start.  A few very good innings and then one thing goes wrong and the starter goes down hill both mentally and physically.

Ross Ohlendorf last night cruised through three innings. Yet,  the second time through the order struggled big time once again.  The problem always seems to be that the opposing hitters adjust the second time through, but the Pirates pitchers aren't capable of making adjustments as well.  If you want to throw some of the blame at Ryan Doumit as well, I'm fine with that;  but take Brad Lincoln out of the equation and these guys aren't rookies anymore.  They need to be better as a group.

What should the Pirates do?  Looking at all of the young guys they brought up.  For argument's sake, let's just say that by next season things start coming together and they have an above average offense that can score at or above the league average.  If that happens, well they still have no starting pitching.  I don't care what league you are playing in, you have to have good starting pitching to compete.

Let's take a look at the current crop of arms.

1. Zach Duke (3-8, 5.49era)-  The gutless wonder as I like to call him.  Duke may be a fifth starter on an average team.  It amazes me how he is aggressive in the zone until he gets two strikes on hitters.  I felt they should have dealt Duke last season when his value was at it's highest. It will now never be higher.  Duke simply doesn't have the ability to get consistent outs on a consistent basis.  He may throw you a gem every two months, but that's what fifth starters do for you.  Top of the rotation guys are supposed to take the ball every fifth day and give you a chance to win.  Duke isn't in that class of pitcher.  He will always be more than a hit an inning type of guy.

2. Paul Maholm (4-5, 3.77)- Maholm is hands down the team's best pitcher.  He battles and gives the team an opportunity to win most night's out.  That's all I can really ask for.  He doesn't give into hitters the way Duke does.  He doesn't have the greatest stuff, but will challenge hitters all game long.  Maholm is a three or four starter but he is a keeper.

3. Ross Ohlendorf (0-6, 5.43)-  Ohlendorf is similar to Charlie Morton, to the point I can't figure either out.  Ohlendorf has had some bad luck, but like Morton, seems to suffer mentally when things start to break down.  I'm concerned about his dip in velocity. He still may be having some back issues as well.   I don't think Ohlendorf is as good as his numbers from a year ago, but I don't think he's as bad as his current numbers.  In a perfect situation, Ohlendorf is a good back of the rotation guy.

4. Brad Lincoln (0-1, 6.50)- I'm not concerned with Lincoln at all.  He's pitching like most rookies pitch-up and down.  He has glimpses of looking dominant and at other times, well he looks like a rookie.  Rookie pitchers in the majors aren't supposed to look like Stephen Strasburg, They tend to fare more like Lincoln. He's got great movement on his pitches.  I would like to see him utilize his changeup more, especially to left hand hitters.  Overall, Lincoln should be fine.  It's three starts.  I don't think he will eventually be a one or two type starter, but instead; will be a solid middle of the rotation guy.

5. Jeff Karstens (2-2, 4.72)- Say what you want about Karstens, but Karstens flat out does his job.  He doesn't necessarily have major league stuff, but what Karstens does is compete.  Karstens hangs around just long enough to give the team a chance to win most night's.  He's not pretty and definitely not overpowering, but he is gutsy.  Team's often need a guy like Karstens.  I have no problem giving him the ball.

Overall, you look at the current crop of starters and basically, we have a pair of number three's (Lincoln and Maholm) and really three guys who wouldn't be in most rotations around baseball.

Facts are the Pirates need pitching as much as talented position players such as Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata.  The next wave of arms to come through are all performing well at Altoona.  That list includes Rudy Owens, Bryan Morris, Tim Alderson (although his drop in velocity concerns me as well), Jared Hughes and Justin Wilson.  Also keep an eye on Nathan Adcock and Jeff Locke, currently performing well at Bradenton.

Add to that a draft class that includes power arms Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie (who the team MUST sign both), the future staff has some promise, but that's still probably two years away.

You can root for Alvarez and for the Pirates to promote Tony Sanchez all you want, but any success for the Pirates in the future depend solely on the arms in the organization.  Hopefully, a few can get to the big club within the next season or so, because the current crop of arms just won't get the job done.

Pirates Select Hard Throwing Taillon With Second Overall Pick

Well the Pirates made their pick and have made me very happy, selecting the 6'7 flame throwing, Texas right hander Jameson Taillon.  Taillon was viewed as one of three can't miss guys that also included Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.

Naturally Harper went first overall to the Nats and after the Bucs selected Taillon, Machado went third to the Orioles.  I would have been happy with either Taillon or Machado, but I was a little more excited to get Taillon.

As much as I liked Machado, ultimately he is viewed as a third baseman instead of a shortstop.  Unless the Pirates were committed to moving Pedro Alvarez to first base, then the pick didn't make much sense.

With Taillon, we get a guy viewed as a top of the rotation guy with a great make up and excellent stuff.  He has three plus pitches- fastball, curveball and slider.  he is also throwing a change up some now and scouts have said that is coming along very well.  It's the kid's make up though which have had scouts in awe. The guy is tough as nails and is the ultimate competitor.



Give the Pirates credit.  For a team that was running JVB, Brian Bullington, and other stiffs out to the mound just three years ago, they know have some good pitching talent in the system.  In 2-3 seasons, we could see a young rotation of Tailon, Brad Lincoln, Bryan Morris, Tim Alderson and Rudy Owens.  Things are looking much better for the future of the Pirates.

Now all we gotta do is sign the kid.

Minor League Report

Usually I write my weekly Pirates Minor League Report and seeing that as we are over a month into the season and I have yet to do one,  now seems like a good time.

Searching through the organization, I have been very excited and have really kept tabs on what a lot of these guys are doing.  It's not a joke, for the first time in decades, the Pirates have REAL prospects.  Not only do they have real prospects, they have real good prospects with high ceilings.

I will try and make this a weekly thing again but I have been very busy of late.  So let's take a look at the minor leagues.

Indianapolis Indians (AAA)-  Neil Walker has been tremendous with both the bat and the glove and had played all over the diamond.  Scouts are raving about his versatility and he is hitting. 325 with 6HR/25RBI.  Jose Tabata has been very good as well, hitting .315 2/11 and also has 17 steals.  Many feel we will see both guys very soon in Pittsburgh.  Pedro Alvarez had some problems with the batting average early, but is all the way up to .265 with 9HR and 36 RBI's in 36 games.  he's starting to hit for power off lefties as well, which is something the organization has wanted to see.

On the mound, Brad Lincoln is off to a 4-1 start with a 3.23 era.  He is throwing three pitches consistently for strikes and once he gets a little more confidence in his change up, then PNC Park should be the next step.  Donnie Veal and Daniel McCutchen have been decent down in AAA but keep your eye on Michael Crotta.  Crotta who wasn't listed among the Pirates Top 50 prospects a year ago has quickly climbed through the ranks.  After getting promoted from Altoona earlier in the season, Crotta has made three very good starts with the Indians, going 2-1 with a 2.86 era; including seven strong innings on Friday.  Crotta is a sinker baller with above average stuff that just gets people out.

Altoona Curve-  The prospects starting with Alttona and lower in the organization are really worth keeping an eye on.  Looking at the position players at Altoona, outfielder Alex Pressley leads the team with a .361 average.  Infielders Josh Harrison and Jim Negrych are both hitting over .300 as well.  Harrison is highly thought of and this seems to be a bounce back year for Negrych, who is back on the map.  There isn't really much power to pay attention for the Curve off the bat.

Two guys struggling to keep an eye on are shortstop of the future Chase D'Arnaud and outfielder Gorkys Hernandez.  Both got off to very slow starts at the plate, but both are still highly thought of.  Some have said D'Arnaud may be the best athlete in the minor leagues at the moment.  D'arnaud has picked things up lately though his numbers don't look like it.  He's hitting only .216 and hasn't shown any power. Scouts say not to expect numbers like that for long.  Hernandez on the other hand has only two extra base hits all season and is only hitting .205.  he may quickly be getting passed up by other young talented outfielders.

On the mound, right hander Jared Hughes and left hander Rudy Owens have been very good.  Hughes is 7-1 with a 3.16 era and Owens sits at 3-2 with a 3.86 era. Owens should have a few more wins but his body of work has been great; especially his 40 strikeouts to only eight walks.  Tim Alderson has a 2-1 record but an inflated 6.19 era.  I'm not really worried about the era because that came as the result of one bad outing.

Keep your eye on Daniel Moskos.  Moskos will be forever linked to Matt Wieters, but seems to have found a role as a left handed reliever.  Moskos is 1-0 with a 1.15era in 15.1 innings of work.

I will have a report on Bradenton and West Virgina posted tomorrow

My Thoughts on the Neil Huntington Rebuild

Many have asked about my overall opinion of Neil Huntington's rebuild of the Pittsburgh Pirates or for my letter grade of it, so here we go. This may be long so bear with me. First of all we are going to look at this as a 2 year rebuild, not just at the current trades of this season.

First I want to look at the guys that we dealt, since opening day 2008. In no particular order, they were: John Grabow, Jose Bautista, Tom Gorzelanny, Freddy Sanchez, Ian Snell, Jack Wilson, Adam Laroche, Nyjer Morgan, Sean Burnett, Nate Mclouth, Jason Bay, Damaso Marte, Xavier Nady, Soloman Torres and Ronny Paulino. A total of 15 guys that had spent time on the big league club the last two seasons.

For the most part, everyone on this list was under 28 and contributed somewhat at the MLB level. I will argue that we really didn't part with much at all. Aside from Bay, who went into an ideal situation, with a stacked lineup, where he will see a ton of fastballs; what did we give up? Maybe you can argue about Mclouth, but I still view him as a very good player, not a superstar. I would rather have Andrew McCutchen in center field than Mclouth, and that is no knock on Nate.

The rest of the list are just simply average to above average major leaguers. Most were upcoming free agents who weren't going to be here anyway. We really didn't give up anything other than a collection of guys who simply were not getting the job done in Pittsburgh. Most of these guys really had no value here and that includes Sanchez and Wilson. A total rebuild was necessary and that's what Neil Huntington did different than his predecessors. You can't rebuild a franchise like the Pirates by dealing one or two guys. The farm system needed replenished. Aside from Bay, none of the guys will be impact players for their new clubs. We really didn't give up anything of value. I thought Huntington said it best when he said, "It's not like we broke up the '27 Yankees."

Now, I will agree that a rebuild like this, requires taking on some risk. It requires an excellent job from the scouting department all the way up to the GM. This time they can't miss with their decisions. Do we know what we got with all the acquisitions? Not at all, and don't expect all these guys to pan out. Out of the 30 guys brought in since opening day 2008, if 15 prove to be solid major leaguers, then it was a great job by Huntington.

Now realize one thing, when Huntington took over the team, the cupboard was bare. Entirely empty. At the minor league level, there was McCutchen and Neil Walker. That's sad. The Pirates farm system was drained completely, by years of mismanagement. In Huntington's two seasons, he has tried to completely give the farm system a make over. You don't think he's doing it? Take a look a the current list of top 10 prospects. Only Brad Lincoln remains on that list from the Littlefield era. Now after the job Huntington did, Walker isn't viewed as a top 15 prospect. I'd say the makeover of the system is working.

The 30 guys brought in, in no particular order: Robinson Diaz, Jeff Clement, Andy Laroche, Lastings Milledge, Gorkys Hernandez, Jose Tabata, Tim Alderson, Brandon Moss, Craig Hansen, Jeff Locke, Argenis Diaz, Ross Ohlendorf, Delwyn Young, Nathan Adcock, Bryan Morris, Kevin Hart, Mariano Salas, Josh Harrison, Brett Lorin, Aaron Pribanic, Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, Kevin Roberts, Jose Ascaino, Hunter Strickland, Ronny Cedeno, Tyler Yates, Charlie Morton, Joel Hanrahan and Jason Jaramillo (I hope I didn't leave anyone out). that list doesn't include finally having a couple of good drafts and even signing a guy like Garrett Jones. On paper, it looks like quite the haul in exchange for a bunch of guys who simply weren't in the plans.

It's entirely about value and how you value a certain player. All I hear is complaining that all we got was minor leaguers. Well, that's the point. The idea is to be able to compete for years to come, not just take a shot at .500 one season. While I see value in what we got in return, it is a hard thing to figure out how these guys will do at the MLB level. Could I be over valuing some of these guys? Sure. However, the Pirates fan base definitely is guilty of over valuing guys like Wilson, Sanchez Gorzo,etc. Like it or not, none of those guys brought anything to the table for the future. Take your blinders off and realize that we really didn't part with much during the last two years. Again, the goal is winning, not taking a run at.500.

Now from here on, everything is based on projections and how these guys do at the minor league level. I expect Clement, Milledge,Hernandez, Tabata and Alderson to be solid major leaguers with upside. That's five more than currently on the roster. Mostly everyone else projects into the next tier of guys that should get to the big leagues, especially the 3 arms acquired from Seattle. If a good portion of these guys succeed, then it was a good rebuild.

Now to the question on why we are just getting good prospects in return and not great ones. To start, I thought we did well with Alderson and Clement this week. First part of the answer is that top tier, home grown guys just aren't available anymore, especially arms. Secondly, we didn't have any talent to trade worthy enough of teams shelling out top prospects. We traded average guys with no upside. Which is why I was shocked the Giants parted with Alderson for Sanchez and that we got a guy like Clement in a deal for Wilson and Snell. I thought the whole process of Huntington worked. In each case he sold low and bought high. No longer did we trade trash for trash. We traded trash for upside and I am fine with it. I do feel it was important to rid itself of the losing culture that spreads throughout that locker room like a cancer.

Therefore, we really only brought in 2 big time prospects, but not by lack of trying. So as far as a letter grade, I give the whole process a solid B. Everyone brought in has some upside and something to offer this team in the future. Just look at the organization from March 2008 until today. We had zero power and now we have a few guys with major league power in the system, We had zero arms and now we have a ton of guys with not only potential, but serious arms strength. We are stacked at a few positions, most notably outfield and corner infielders.

I also feel it's important to create competition throughout the organization. We haven't had that in a long, long time. We have more talent all through the organization now, than at any point in the past. The guys currently on the MLB roster now get a chance to prove they belong. They can secure a job for years, by simply producing. If not, there are now guys behind them to push them for jobs. Healthy competition is always good.

Part two of the rebuild is soon to begin. I still expect Duke and Capps to be shipped out, either in August or in the off-season. Now the goal is to start filling in at the MLB level. Spring training will be fun to watch, as many of these guys will be given opportunities to win jobs. Some of the outfield prospects can now possibly be dealt to sure up other positions. So, Neil Huntington's work is no where near done.

Part 3 of the rebuild is on Bob Nutting and I don't know if that's a good thing. He absolutely has to start spending some money on the product on the field. In the next two seasons, we should be able to add quality on the free agent market (I say quality because I know superstars are out of the question). By 2011, there is no reason, a team like the Brewers, in a smaller market should have double the payroll as the Pirates. Fans got the worst news possible today, when Nutting announced that ownership will not change anytime in the near future.

However, this is it. I bought into the plan and have liked the results so far. The payroll is down to the $25-$30 mil range. It's time to start adding and most importantly, it's time to start winning. No more rebuilds. This is the group that the organization likes, well let's start producing and winning. The goal here is 2011 and 2012.

New Look Buccos Debut with Success

Before I get into last night's game, I have to address the comments made by former Bucco Sean Burnett. He said, "We (Nyjer and him) saw this coming. They are the laughing stock of baseball." My initial reaction was "Who the F@#K are you."

Reality check to Mr. Burnett. YOU were part of the problem and the losing culture here as well. YOU were the guy that was a first round pick that never realized his potential. While not a huge part, you were still part of the problems which initiated all the moves to begin with. I will give credit when credit is due, you have become a decent lefty out of the pen, but you did nothing here except under achieve.

As far as the laughing stock comment, another reality check. Look at the name on YOUR jersey, that is if it is even spelled right. Yeah buddy, you play for the 30 win Nats and you have the balls to call out other franchises. Right now you are as low as you can be. At least the Bucs are taking the right steps to TRY and have a winning future. What have the Nats done, other than drafting Steven Strausberg, who they probably won't even sign. The future is alot brighter here then it is in Washington so you should probably keep your mouth shut.

By no means am I saying this franchise is in good shape. We will be a laughing stock until we start winning. However, for a guy like Burnett to criticize the Bucs, when he is in a far worse situation is ridiculous. He Sean, I will give you something to laugh at...........your career.

As far as the performance last night, I was excited. The lineup wasn't bad. it was no worse than it was before the deals, in fact I may like it better. Nice debut for Milledge and Cedeno. Also good for Pearce, starting to hit the ball with authority. maybe getting Clement lit a fire under him. A nice start by Ohlendorff as well. The only guy that was disappointing was Hanrahan. I think some of it was due to playing his former team.

The thing I noticed is that there was an extra step to these guys last night. A lot more energy out of the guys and they were having fun. They are definitely a more athletic team and will be fun to watch the rest of the season.

NOTES

-Andy Laroche is quietly becoming an excellent defensive third baseman.

- Fine job by Evan meek and Jessie Chavez getting big outs in big spots.

-Funny that Garrett Jones is the team leader in homers with 10, despite only being up for a month. The RBI leader is Andy Laroche with 38.

-Newly acquired Jeff Clement homered in his first two AB's at Indy.

-Tim Alderson goes tonight for Altoona

-Virgil Vasquez goes tonight for the Bucs, but expect it to be the last time. Kevin Hart will pitch on Wed.

-If you noticed, Nyjer Morgan is still a lousy base runner, getting picked off AGAIN by a right handed pitcher

Freddy Sanchez Dealt to Giants

Another positive day for the Pirates and GM Neil Huntington. Although the team dropped a tough 1-0 loss in San Francisco, the team boarded the plane without one person. That person was second baseman Freddy Sanchez, who got left behind in San Francisco, as he was dealt to the Giants for pitcher Tim Alderson. The Sanchez deal came about six hours after Sanchez's double play partner Jack Wilson was sent to Seattle in a separate deal.

Huntington did well in the Wilson deal and I think he did just as well with the Sanchez deal. Alderson, a 20 year old right hander was listed as the fourth best prospect in the Giants organization. He is a 6"6 right hander who is considered a premium prospect. How long has it been since we have acquired guys with the upside as we have gotten in the last calender year.

This excerpt from Ben-Nicholson Smith at mlbtraderumors.com

5:51pm: Kovacevic is reporting that the minor leaguer is AA pitcher Tim Alderson. This is an impressive haul for Sanchez--Alderson was ranked the #4 prospect in the Giants' system by Baseball America. What we thought was a salary dump has turned into a pretty solid coup for the Pirates.

Sounds to me like we did well.

Alderson was currently at AA Connecticut, posting a 6-1 record (why is the Giants AA team all the way in Connecticut?). Overall, he is 7-2 with a 3.45era in 98.2 ip. He has struck out 68, compared to only 14 walks. The early report on Alderson is he is a strike throwing machine with serious stuff. Early report I hear is that Alderson has a fastball in the low to mid 90's. he has plus breaking stuff which is his out pitches and a developing change up, which scouts say has come along nicely.

Alderson was named 2008 MLB Class A Pitcher of the Year. After being selected by the Giants in the first round of the 2007 draft, Alderson has worked his way through the Giants system. After last season, Baseball America rated him the 33rd best overall prospect in baseball. Keith Law currently ranks Alderson the 26th best prospect in all of baseball. I do that deal for Sanchez easily.

At first, I would have wished we got more, but I am happy getting a guy like this. In the last year, we haven't been dealing just to deal. Huntington keeps acquiring high ceiling talent and while he will be a hated man around Pittsburgh, he is doing a great job rebuilding this organization. It needed a total rebuilding after the last two regimes and Huntington is doing it the right way.

He was able to get a guy like Alderson for Sanchez straight up, without including any cash. Huge win for Huntington. Use that cash to sign Miguel Angel Sano or include it in a deal for Grabow or Capps to keep stockpiling talent. It could be a couple busy days for Huntington, but if you are keeping score at home, he went 2-0 today and he is 4-o on the season.

OTHER NOTES
One more thing to see what others are saying. this from Kovacevic.

6:19pm: Kovacevic says that no money is being exchanged in the Sanchez deal, which makes it all the more impressive for the Pirates. Keith Law (Insider) recently ranked the 20-year-old Alderson the 26th-best prospect in all of baseball.

One other thing is that right before the deal, Sanchez came to the Bucs with a 3 year/$20mil offer to stay. He has to be nuts. Naturally the Pirates declined and made what looks to be a good deal.

One final way to look at this is that the best pitching prospect dealt during the day doesn't get get dealt for Cliff Lee, he gets dealt for Freddy Sanchez? What are you doing Cleveland? Also I hear Brian Sabean is feeling some backlash for dealing Alderson for just Sanchez and no cash.

Here is a link with some good quotes from new Pirate Tim Alderson
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1355