In what appears to be the year of the starting pitcher, the only team that seems to have missed out on the trend have been the Pittsburgh Pirates. Entering today with a major league worst 5.38 team era, the Pirates have to do something with their starting staff, which has a combined era of 5.91, also a major league worst.
The current guys obviously aren't getting the job done, so what should they do between now and the July 31st trading deadline? The two first steps are to deal both Zach Duke and Ryan Doumit. Their value was higher last season, but now it's to the point that Neil Huntington has to get what he can for these guys. They have had plenty of chances each, and simply haven't got the job done.
Step two is to acquire a veteran catcher. Someone that is capable of working with a young pitching staff. I want a good veteran defensive catcher who can handle a staff. I could care less about his bat right now, especially with the way the offense has performed to date. Having a good veteran catcher behind the plate could go a long way into developing some arms at this level. Believe me, Doumit isn't that guy. Take last night for example. How many times did we have to see Daniel McCutchen throw fastball after fastball on the outer half of the plate. You want to get crushed? Keep throwing 88-90mph fastballs to the middle and outer half. It's not just McCutchen though, that's how the game is called on a daily basis.
Pirates pitchers refuse to work the inner half of the plate. The mentality has to change to be effective. Since there is no way John Russell or Joe Kerrigan's job is in jeopardy, let's get a quality backstop and let them handle the young staff. I don't care if Huntington has to overpay for one, but these young arms need a real catcher.
The next two pressing questions are what to do with Daniel McCutchen, and more importantly Charlie Morton. First let's look at McCutchen. Nothing he does really jumps off the page at me, but I feel he should get a longer look. Your already 24 games under .500, so it won't hurt to let him pitch. You have to see what you have and don't have in McCutchen. The kid has the ability to throw strikes and I hate to keep nagging on the veteran catcher thing, but it could help big time with guys like McCutchen, Morton and Brad Lincoln.
How smart were the Washington Nationals when they signed Pudge Rodriguez? Don't overlook how that signing will help their young arms in the long run. They can send McCutchen back to AAA, but after the trading deadline, he should be a part of the rotation for the rest of the season.
Now for Morton. The Pirates just don't need Morton to rebound. He HAS to rebound. First, read the Braves scouting report in 2007 on Morton by clicking HERE. As you can see, they had the same questions about Morton that we currently have. Weather he has it mentally or not to pitch effectively in the majors is one thing, but there is no questioning his stuff. He can be nasty when he's effective, but he hasn't nearly been as effective as often as he should be as a Pirate.
If the Braves organization are left scratching their heads over Morton, then the Pirates won't have a clue. Though reading the scouting report, you have to hold out hope for the very last line to come true- "The sky's the limit for Morton." It's getting a little late to believe that, but Morton has to be a big part of what will be the future rotation. Again, a veteran catcher would help Morton a great deal.
Morton's rehab assignment ends July 3rd, so the Pirates have to make a decision soon. Morton's last start at Indy was his best as a pro, firing a 2-hit complete game shutout. Charlie Morton can pitch at the major league level. He showed what he could do at the end of last season. The smart thing to do is to insert him right back in the rotation and give him the ball every fifth day. Let's just forget about the start of the season for Morton and let's just start over. It's vital to the future that a guy like Morton figures it out. Let's just hope the trip to the minors was a wake up call.
What is John Russell's obsession with playing Ryan Church so much? Please, someone tell me. Church should be the fourth outfielder on this team and nothing more. He should be a left handed bat coming off the bench and nothing more. He is on this team to be dealt at the deadline. Somebody will look into acquiring an extra left handed bat off the bench. Why then is he taking so many at bats away from Lastings Milledge?
Don't say it's because of the DH either. Even Delwyn Young offers a better bat to use as the DH rather than Church.
When you are sitting at 25-46, play your best eight players please. Russell shouldn't be worried about keeping guys like Church fresh. He offers very little to this team. He doesn't hit, he's average defensively and overall he appears to be a lazy ballplayer.
The Pirates signed him, hoping he could produce similar to what he did in 2007, when he hit 15 homers and drove in 70 runs for the Washington Nationals. Instead they got the guy that has combined to hit only six homers and drive in 53 over the last two seasons. If you look over a three year span, he's only hit 18 bombs and driven in 102 combined. I didn't mind the signing, but it didn't work out. Can we please stop running him out there?
Church's numbers on the season aren't good. He's hitting .186 with two homers and 13 RBI's in 129 at bats. Yet, Russell continues to bat him in the middle of the order. He is a rally killer. Batting him, or Ryan Doumit fifth in the order is asking for quick innings when the top of the order is getting on base.
What does he do better than Milledge? Not much. Milledge may not be the best defensively, but he's going to bust his butt for you, which is more than I can say for Church. Milledge may make some stupid base running mistakes, but at least he's being aggressive all the time, which is more than I can say for Church. Keep running Milledge out there. He should be the everyday right fielder until the club finds someone better. That option doesn't exist on this current team.
Sure Milledge offers no power, but neither does Church. Milledge is at least hitting a respectable .270 and has driven in 22 runs. He offers the team a much better bat with men on base as well, hitting to a .392 clip with RISP, while Church is hitting a whopping .161 in similar situations. How does that go ignored?
Do I feel like Milledge is the answer to all of the problems? No, of course not, but he is the best option at the moment. Now, Russell doesn't have great talent at the moment, but his sole job is to put his guys in the best position to succeed. He is simply not doing that. When your 21 games under .500, stop picking the lineup out of a hat and run you best eight guys out there everyday. There is no reason to see Ryan Church getting three or four starts a week, while Milledge is losing playing time.
Let the fun begin. The best and most hyped Pirates prospect since none other than Barry Lamar Bonds finally got the call the the show last night. He advanced through the Pirates system in a little over a year. It's center stage for Pedro Alvarez as he should be in the lineup tonight, likely batting fourth or fifth, playing third base.
While I'm very excited to see Pedro up here, the Pirates dropped the ball on him big time. So a little over a week ago, Pedro was deemed not ready when Jose Tabata and Brad Lincoln were promoted. Neil Huntington said "We will bring Pedro up when we feel he is ready."
So what happened in a week? Two days ago, NH reiterated that Alvarez "wasn't ready" and suddenly he gets the call he should have gotten a while ago. He didn't just magically become "ready" in the span of a week.
I personally agreed with Huntington though. What's the rush? The Pirates aren't competing this season, so to promote the guy, they had to be sure. He has improved hitting lefties and will strike out a lot at the major league level, but I could care less about that. Power hitters are supposed to strike out. I want to see runs being driven in. He's obviously ready, so why all of the smoke screens?
If the Pirates were smart, they would have announced days in advance that Alvarez was coming up tonight. Look at how the Nationals handled Stephen Strasburg. They generated a buzz and filled the ballpark. All we hear about from the Nutting's is them whining about attendance. Well, they had the perfect opportunity to start to do something about it and quite frankly dropped the ball.
That's the difference between well run organizations and the way the Pirates are being run.
Alvarez will sell tickets, but the Pirates could do a better job as well. What should we expect? i would expect the Pirates to start scoring around the league average, which is about 4.5 runs per game for the rest of the season. they are currently well below that mark.
Haven't seen Alvarez swing the bat yet? Well this is what you should expect.
I think it's fantastic that we finally have a guy get to the big leagues so quickly. Trust me, many more are on the way. While Pedro will do fine on his own, if the Pirates got behind him right, maybe some people wouldn't lose interest as soon as Steelers training camp starts.
One final note, to make room for Alvarez on the roster, the Pirates DFA'd Aki Iwamura. that should make many of you happy.
After the Washington Nationals just swept the Buccos with former Pirate Matt Capps getting saves in the first two games of the series; it's a perfect time to look back at the Matt Capps situation last off season.
Did Neil Huntington make the right move regarding Capps? As much as I usually have NH's back on his moves, he dropped the ball regarding Capps. Would this team be better with Capps as the closer? No. Should Capps be a member of this bullpen? Not at all. The bullpen has done a fine job. However, there is absolutely no way Capps should have been released. They could have gotten something for him last season or even during the off season. It's just a simple case of the Pirates over valuing their players as usual.
Let's take a look at both Capps and Octavio Dotel's season up to date. Capps is 0-3 with a 3.38 era and 20 saves while Dotel is 0-2 with a much higher 5.40 era and 12 saves. Naturally, Capps is doing a better job, Right? Not really.
Capps got off to a tremendous April, saving 12 games, sporting a 0.68 era. On the other hand, Dotel wasn't very good in the season's first month, notching only 3 saves with a 10.61era. Since that time though, Dotel has been much better. He has notched 9 saves with a 0.82 era in May and June, while Capps has been more Capps-like. The former Pirate has 8 saves in the last month and a half, but an era of 6.12.
Given the choice of the two. I'd still go with Dotel. Most of the reason his numbers look bad is due to having to pitch in a bunch of Pirates April blow outs where he didn't pitch well. On the other hand, much of Capps early success is due to being able to pitch in save situations on a regular basis. Closers can't be run out every fifth day like a starter would and pitch effectively. Good closers need to pitch three or four times a week. Obviously that won't be the case in Pittsburgh. Capps performance of late, along with the call up of rookie Drew Storen; already have Nats fans wondering how long the team will stick with Capps as it's closer.
NH should have been more aggressive when dealing with Capps. He had value and should have been moved at the deadline last season. This season, I expect only two or three deadline deals, with most of the Pirates young future already starting to arrive. With the emergence of Evan Meek along with Joel Hanrahan, they should be able to handle the ninth inning just fine.
Dotel should have value to contending teams at the deadline. Let's hope NH doesn't drop the ball with him as he did with Matt Capps.
The Pirates have made strides to showing off the future of the franchise. It looks to be a third consecutive good draft, assuming the clubs signs top picks Jameson Taillon and Stetson Aliie.
Tonight is another step towards the future as the team unveils top prospects Brad Lincoln and Jose Tabata to make their debuts tonight against the Nationals.
They won't be met with the national media flare that Stephen Strasburg did last night, but they are just as important to the teams future as Strasburg is to the Nats.
Lincoln will get the start and Tabata will likely play left and bat either first or second. It's been so many years since the team has had "REAL" prospects. So this is a time to get excited and see what these young guys, as well as the talented youngsters to follow can do.
Well the Pirates made their pick and have made me very happy, selecting the 6'7 flame throwing, Texas right hander Jameson Taillon. Taillon was viewed as one of three can't miss guys that also included Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.
Naturally Harper went first overall to the Nats and after the Bucs selected Taillon, Machado went third to the Orioles. I would have been happy with either Taillon or Machado, but I was a little more excited to get Taillon.
As much as I liked Machado, ultimately he is viewed as a third baseman instead of a shortstop. Unless the Pirates were committed to moving Pedro Alvarez to first base, then the pick didn't make much sense.
With Taillon, we get a guy viewed as a top of the rotation guy with a great make up and excellent stuff. He has three plus pitches- fastball, curveball and slider. he is also throwing a change up some now and scouts have said that is coming along very well. It's the kid's make up though which have had scouts in awe. The guy is tough as nails and is the ultimate competitor.
Give the Pirates credit. For a team that was running JVB, Brian Bullington, and other stiffs out to the mound just three years ago, they know have some good pitching talent in the system. In 2-3 seasons, we could see a young rotation of Tailon, Brad Lincoln, Bryan Morris, Tim Alderson and Rudy Owens. Things are looking much better for the future of the Pirates.
By 7:15 tomorrow evening, we will know who will be the next big piece of the Pirates rebuild. With Bryce Harper surely to go to the Nats, the Pirates likely will choose between high school ss Manny Machado (featured yesterday) and high school right hander Jameson Tallion (pictured to the left).
Most scouts agree that after the top three prospects (Harper, Machado and Tallion) that there is no real difference from prospects number four to 44. Therefore, despite the cost and the presence of Scott Boras, it is vital the Pirates take one of the two and lock up a deal.
The Pirates have had the number two pick on two previous occasions- selecting OF Mark Merchant in 1987 and 3B Pedro Alvarez in 2008. Merchant was one of only two players picked second overall that never reached the majors. With so many of the Pirates youngsters on the verge of the majors in the next 2-3 seasons, it is vital they continue things and have another good draft. We can't have another Chad Hermansen, Bryan Bullington, Daniel Moskos, Bobby Bradley, Sean Burnett or JVB (I could go on with this list all day long). NH needs to go for impact. We need a stud with this pick.
I looked at Machado yesterday, so today let's take a look at Tallion. First the scouting report
Jameson Taillon
RHP
The Woodlands HS (Texas)
Ht/Wt: 6-7/230
B/T: R/R
Year: Senior
Age at Draft: 18y7m
Filed By: Nick James
Filed On: August 18, 2009
Last Updated: April 30, 2010
Scouted:
Aflac All-American Game, August 16, 2009 (film)
Under Armour All-America Game, August 8, 2009 (in attendance)
Perfect Game National Showcase, June 11-14, 2009 (film)
Perfect Game World Showcase, January 3-4, 2009 (film)
Frame:
Close to maxed-out, but already big league body. Sturdy, workhorse build. Good athleticism and well above-average body control. Moves well and shows excellent awareness of his actions.
Motion:
Taillon has a simple side step into his motion with little movement in his upper-body. He has an exaggerated closed leg kick (closed all the way to the LF side of the 3B bag), adding some deception and making it difficult for the hitter to pick-up the ball out of his low hand break. He moves to a drop-and-drive approach to the plate as he begins to rotate his body back towards home. Explosive in his stride, he has a sizeable step, giving his arm plenty of time to get into the cocked position as he plants. He gets good hip/shoulder separation, creating good rotation through his core and helping to generate his plus velocity. He drives directly towards home consistently, fully utilizing all the momentum he builds-up through his kick and stride. His arm comes from a 3/4 slot and is easy, coming across his body. His follow-through could be cleaned-up some, falling off towards first (though he's generally under control). Most impressive is his body control and the repeatability of his mechanics -- a rarity in a high schooler with such a big body. One other "knock" is that Taillon can get a little stiff (some would call it herky-jerky) in his actions, but he repeats well and there aren't big flags on the arm action outside of flashing the ball some (which can be cleaned-up).
Stuff:
Fastball - Generally sitting 93-95 mph with good life, touching 96 (reports have him as high as 98 mph this spring). Taillon can pound the zone with his fastball and it's good enough to simply throw by hitters at this point. He'll need to improve his command in the zone, but it's already a plus pitch that could be plus-plus down the line.
Curveball - Taillon's curve is an impressive power breaking ball with 2-plane action and plus late bite. Already excellent depth, the pitch could be a plus to plus-plus offering as he improves his feel and command. Potential strikeout pitch as both swing-and-miss and in the zone. Through the summer/fall, he sat 77-81 mph with the pitch, which is what I've seen from reports this spring, as well.
Slider - Taillon's wipeout slider has good tilt and comes out of the same slot as his fastball. Low- to mid-80s on the gun (82-84 mph) and could be another swing-and-miss offering at the pro level. Doesn't command pitch yet.
Change-up - Not needed much at this point, but shows feel for the pitch. Good arm speed. Could be yet another average to above-average offering depending on the work put in. Good velo separation from fastball (around 10 mph), but can throw too hard.
Nick's Notes:
Taillon has been nothing short of incredible each time I've seen him (on film and in person), and I do not pass that compliment out lightly. As mentioned above, his body control really stands out for such a big-body. There's an excellent combination here of well above-average pure stuff, an ideal Major League pitcher's body, athleticism and poise. In some ways, this past summer made things more difficult on Taillon, as he set the bar very high for the spring season and opened himself up to an extra level of criticism reserved for those picks under consideration for top 3 overall selection. At the same time, I never expected to enter the 2010 season with anyone but Bryce Harper atop my big board -- while Harper has retained his crown, Taillon has given everyone reason to examine that slot more closely. He has all the makings of a potential front-end starter, with price tag and his Rice commitment the only potential hurdles to top 5 overall selection.
Projected Position: Front-end Starter
Updates:
4/30/2010 - Taillon has enjoyed a successful spring, though he has been dinged some due to the extra scrutiny thrown his way after a wildly successful summer/fall. The most common complaints are a couple of outings in which he surrendered some hits and runs, and a stated "inconsistency" in his stuff from start to start. Some have also referred to his stuff as "hittable". Based on my few conversations with some baseball people in the Houston area, these reports are primarily examples of picking at nits, and there are no red flags with Taillon that should greatly alter his position as top arm in the draft class (and one of the better high school arms in recent years). One person in particular, who I spoke with at the Houston College Classic the night after Taillon's sole loss of the season (a 2-0 loss to CC Moody HS), stated several scouts in attendence were almost going out of their way to find something to point out as an "issue", but that "Jamo" was his same dominant self with easy plus stuff. Taillon has posted multiple double-digit strikeout performances, highlighted by a 19 SO no-hitter against Conroe HS. On the year he has totaled 96 SO in just 47 IP. Nothing unexpected has cropped-up to alter his stock, and he should be the first prep arm off the board based solely on talent and OFP (Overall Future Potential).
11/27/2009 - Taillon's summer/fall circuit did not conclude in Jupiter, as he opted to skip the event in favor of shutting down after a long summer of traveling and throwing. His last pre-season showcase came in the form of two starts for Team USA's 18U squad in the PanAm Games, posting an impressive line of 13.2 IP, 7 H, 28 SO, 3 BB and .149 BAA. His starts came against Panama and Cuba, with the gold medal Cuba start resulting in a single-game record of 16 strikeouts over 7.2 IP and his second win of the tournament.
8/18/2009 - Taillon continues to roll on, making a case to be the first high school player off the board next June, and perhaps the top overall. Taillon cruised through two innings at PetCo in the Aflac All-American Game, striking out four batters in the process. He's still sitting mid-90s with his fastball, even after a long summer circuit.
8/15/2009 - Taillon took home MVP honors for Team One at the Under Armour All-America Game. He was selected by PnR Scouting as the top performer at the event (article here; rankings here).
Other scouting reports have Tallion often clocked at 99 and compared to Roger Clemens at times. I went with the worst scouting report I saw. The kid looks on film like the real deal and he's already got a big body and live arm. Here is a look at Tallion.
I love the 6'7 big body and the live arm and the fact that he has four pitches he commands pretty well. He is also the only other player that scouts say should go number one, ahead of Harper. One area to be concerned with is that he is a high school arm. High school pitchers taken in the Top 3 generally don't pan out and that will likely be the Pirates excuse for passing on him.
Only seven prep pitchers have been taken in the top three in the last 20 years. Josh Beckett and Steve Avery had good careers while the other five never made it, including Brien Taylor. However, he is an arm from Texas and that actually means a great deal. Texas pitchers are power pitchers and have numbers on their side. Only 19 of 43 prep pitchers taken in the Top 10 the last ten seasons have made the majors and half of them are from Texas.
I'm torn on who to take, Machado or Tallion. I love both guys. You can never have too much pitching, but the Pirates seem to have some good arms throughout their system right now. For that reason, I may lean towards Machado a little more. However, I can't pass up on a big power arm like Tallion. So my pick at #2 is indeed Jameson Tallion.
Who will the Pirates pick? I'm guessing LHP Drew Pomeranz from the University of Mississippi. He's a very talented arm with almost an unhittable curve ball, but there is no way the Pirates should pass up on either Machado or Tallion. Though you know as well as I do, that they tend to not take the best player.
There are three players labeled "can't miss" in this draft. At 7:15 tomorrow night, one of the three better be property of the Pirates.
It didn't take long for the Bucco's to make some news after pitchers and catchers reported to Bradenton. Neil Huntington announced today that set up man Joel Hanrahan will be shut down due to elbow tightness.
Early reports say their is no structural damage and he will just be shutdown for the time being. However, if Hanrahan is still feeling discomfort in the next two to three weeks, then it's the three words no pitcher ever wants to hear- Dr. James Andrews.
Even if Hanrahan can pitch through the pain, he should be considered doubtful to open the season with the Bucs. Hanrahan was the Bucs most effective reliever after being acquired from the Nats in the Nyjer Morgan deal. Opposing hitters batted only .160 off Hanrahan in August and September. During that span he had a 0.42 ERA.
I liked the back end of the pen, with Hanrahan and Evan Meek setting up Octavio Dotel. I expect Brenden Donelley to move into Hanrahan's role and DJ Carrasco to get a bigger workload as well.
Since he will likely begin the season on the DL, there is one more job availbale. I don't expect NH to attempt to sign anyone else, he will just go with the guys he has. While not big names, the Pirates do have a little depth in the bullpen this season.
I've been on this wrapping up the decade kick recently, so here goes another one, since everyone seemed to enjoy the All-Decade team thread. Here's my question. Who was the worst franchise of the decade? The best franchise is much easier to decide- The Yankees win that. They played in four World Series, winning two. Eight division titles and nine post-season berths. No other team belongs in the conversation.
Now for the intresting part, who was MLB's worst franchise? I have limited it down to five franchises: Baltimore, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Washington/Montreal and Cincinatti. I will list some reasons why each should be considered the worst and why each should not (more than just overall record is considered). I will let you decide who wins.
First off is Baltimore
Why they are the worst
- losing record every season
- finished last place twice and next to last seven times
- As of 1999, the O's were second in MLB in attendence at 3.4 mil. 10 years later, they drew 1.9 mil last season
Why they aren't the worst
-The O's won 26 more games than bothe the Bucs and Royals
-O's fans got to watch Cal Ripken the first two seasons of the deacde.
Next is Cincinatti
Why they are the worst
-Nine losing seasons
-Five different managers
Why they aren't the worst
- Never finished in last place (thanks to being in same division as Buccos)
- Had one winning season
- Only three 90 loss seasons
Next is Pittsburgh
Why they are the worst
- Losing season every year
- Seven seasons of 90 plus losses
- Four managers
- Constant turnover in personnel to save money
- Complete lack of talent. They wouldn't have won even if they hadn't traded away their best players (Kendall, Ramirez, Bay, Benson,McLouth, Schmidt, Wilson, Sanchez etc.)
- Most famous hit during the decade came on a sausage (thank you Randall Simon)
-Only team to literally steal a base (Llyod McClendon)
- Incompeteant Management that made questionable moves
-They employed Dave Littlefield, enough said
Why they aren't
- Moved into best ballpark in America (Can't believe I went there. So sad)
- In this particular discussion, they don't get credit for their previous seven losing seasons entering the decade
-Surprisingly, they don't have the majors worst record of the decade, but they are very close
-New management seems to have begun to add talent to the system
Kansas City Royals
Why they are the worst
- MLB worst 672-948, 12 games worse than the Bucs
- Averaged 95 losses per season
- A whopping four 100 loss seasons
- Finished in last 5 times.
- Lost 19 in a row at one point
- Also has incompetant management that makes questionable moves. For instance dealing a top prospect for Yuniesky Betancourt and his awful contract. Yuniesky Freakin Betancourt?
Why the aren't
- Had one winning season in 2003. They were in first place at the end of August.
-They have actually had some real talent. Carlos Beltran, Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye, etc.
- Cy Young Award winner Zach Grienke speaks for himself.
Finally, Washington/ Montreal/Puerto Rico
Why they are the worst
-Finished last place 6 times, more than anyone else.
-Finished with the worst record in baseball the last 2 seasons
-Began the deacde in Montreal
-Super marketing strategy by their former owner Jeffery Loria who wouldn't broadcast radio games in English and wouldn't broadcast any games on television, while they were the Expos.
- Only franchise that Bud Selig threatened to contract
- Had to be taken over and run by the league
- While still in Montreal, they played 21 home games in Puerto Rico, over 2000 miles away from their home, equalling over 100 road games
- Moved to Washington
- While there, finished last 4 out of 5 seasons
- GM Jim Bowden had to resign due to a federal investigation about skimming signing bonuses from Latin Players.
- Cut loose guys like Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips,Vlad Guerrero, etc. Even their mascot was dismissed
- The one that seals the deal though could be that they misspelled their names wrong on their jerseys. No excuse
Why they aren't
-Had three winning seasons
- Avereaged only 91 losses, which compared to the others is good
- 39.5 games better than Kansas City
- Drafted the most coveted pitcher in recent memory- Steven Strausburg
So who's the worst? In my opinion, I'm taking Baltimore and Cincinatti out of the conversation. The other 3 could all be good choices. The choice should be the Pirates, but I'm actually putting stock into what they've done in acquiring talent.
That leaves the team with the worst record in Kansas City and hands down the most disfunctional franchise in Washington. The Royals and Pirates has lost and lost badly, but they don't have the disfunctionality that Washington has. Also being threatened with contraction is a selling point. Also when I watch the Royals and Pirates lose, their names are spelled correctly on their uniforms.
Therefore, the worst franchise of the decade is the Washington/Montreal/Puerto Rico- Nationals/Expos. Congrats to them. Let me know your opinions.
I spent last week breaking down the American League. This week I will break down the National League, starting with the east.
Projected order of finish
1. New York Mets- The Mets won't collapse this season. G.M. Omar Minaya went out and fixed the teams real weakness, the bullpen. Adding K-Rod and Putz will make a difference. After Johan Santana, the rotation isn't great, but will give them innings. With the improved bullpen, I think the starters won't have to pitch deep into games and that will make a difference. I am also predicting that Minaya will acquire the best arm available at the deadline, likely to be Roy Halladay.
Offensively the Mets have a nice balance of power and speed and scoring runs shouldn't be a problem. Delgado will be the player he was post all-star break last season and Wright and Reyes, already young superstars will be even better. Carlos Beltran is healthy and will have an MVP like season. 2009 will be the season the Mets win the East.
2. PhiiladelphiaPhillies- Picking the Mets to win the East is no knock on the Phillies. I like them to win the Wild Card. I mean the Mets can't possibly tank it 3 Septembers in a row. Can they? The Phils are like the Mets offensively, with power and speed, but better at both. The Phils are also alot better defensively than their rivals. The only move the world champs made in the off season was to replace Burrell with Ibanez, an upgrade.
The Phils will need some right hand power, but I just don't know where they would play. The staff is good and the bullpen is strong. The Phils will be playing in October again. One guy that could make a difference as a fifth starter is Carlos Carrasco. Keep an eye on him. He should be up this season.
3.Atlanta Braves- Here is a team I like alot to bounce back. I don't have them higher because I think the Phils and the Mets will be real good. The Bravos fixed their rotation adding 3 new starters. Lowe and Vazquez will give the Braves innings, which they didn't get a season ago. The question with the staff will be the bullpen and can a guy like Mike Gonzalez stay healthy for an entire season to anchor the back end of the pen.
Bobby Cox is a winner. Chipper Jones is a winner. Everyone else is young and unproven. Escobar, Kotchman, Francorer and McCann are good young players. The Braves are good in their farm also. Look for Jordan Schaffer to come up and win the center field job and Tommy Hanson to find his way into the Braves rotation by the all-star break.
4. Florida Marlins- I like this team because they always find ways to hang in the race. They have a superstar in Hanley Ramirez and an up incoming star in Cameron Maybin. They are an aggressive team and will run alot.
The best part of this team is a good young rotation. No household names, but some good arms. Nolasco, Johnson, Sanchez, Miller and Volstad all throw hard and can get people out. They will keep the fish in alot of games, but the division is too tough for the Marlins to win.
5. Washington Nationals- This is one of the few teams in the bigs that have no chance. They did add Adam Dunn which should give them some pop and Ryan Zimmerman will be healthy. The outfield could be surprisingly good with Dunn, Dukes and Milledge, but that's about it for Washington.
Some arms are on the way. Jordan Zimmerman should break camp with the big club and fit nicely into a bad rotation. Also Washington has the first pick in the draft and if they don't get scared away from the Scott Boras price tag, San Diego St right hander Steven Strausberg and his 102 MPH fastball is considered big league ready.
